CAJ | 학술논문

利用安徽省78个气象站1971-2005年资料,采用FAO Penman-Monteith模型和一季稻作物系数计算作物需水量,得到针对一季稻的农业干旱指标;在分析了1980年以来一季稻主要发育期变化不大的基础上,利用多年农业气象观测资料,采用詹森乘法作物-水分模型新解法进行一季稻干旱敏感性系数分解,得到一季稻逐句敏感性系数;建立了基于农业干旱强度、作物敏感性和区域脆弱性的一季稻旱灾损失评估模型.试用结果表明,模型的相对误差大部分为20%～35%,绝对误差为2.9～4.0,基本满足业务应用.由于各地水稻品种不同,抗灾能力也有差异,因此模型误差仍偏大,需进一步修正模型,并加强抗灾能力对减轻灾害损失贡献的研究.
이용안휘성78개기상참1971-2005년자료,채용FAO Penman-Monteith모형화일계도작물계수계산작물수수량,득도침대일계도적농업간한지표;재분석료1980년이래일계도주요발육기변화불대적기출상,이용다년농업기상관측자료,채용첨삼승법작물-수분모형신해법진행일계도간한민감성계수분해,득도일계도축구민감성계수;건립료기우농업간한강도、작물민감성화구역취약성적일계도한재손실평고모형.시용결과표명,모형적상대오차대부분위20%～35%,절대오차위2.9～4.0,기본만족업무응용.유우각지수도품충불동,항재능력야유차이,인차모형오차잉편대,수진일보수정모형,병가강항재능력대감경재해손실공헌적연구.
Based on the meteorological data of 78 weather stations of Anhui Province in the period from 1971 to 2005,crop water requirements are calculated by use of coefficient of single cropping rice and FAO PenmanMonteith Model and agricultural drought index of single cropping rice age obtained.Analysis on the data since 1980 shows that there is little change of main developmental phases of single cropping rice.By use of many years of agro-meteorological observation data and novel solution of Jensen crop-water equation,drought sensitivity coefficients of single cropping rice of each ten day Was calculated.The model for assessing drought-related yield loss of single cropping rice is established based on the intensity of agricultural drought,crop sensitivity and regional vulnerability.The tryout results show that the most of relative error8 of the model are 20%～35%and its absolute errors are 2.9～4.0,which can basically satisfy the application.Because there age differences in rice varieties and resistant ability to disasters in the different regions,the errors of the models age still large and the model needs to be further modified.It is thought that research on the contribution of disaster resistant ability to disaster reduction should be strengthened.