CAJ | 학술논문

政策总是通过对土地利用/土地覆被的强烈影响而影响陆地碳平衡.本研究旨在探讨环境保护政策(主要是退耕还林)政策对我国陆地碳平衡的影响,从而为政府部门等相关政策制定者提供环境保护和应对气候变化的决策支持.利用DLS(Dynamics Land System)模型对2000-2025年环境保护政策情景下的土地利用变化模拟结果和前人对碳密度的研究成果,运用碳密度法估算了该政策情景对中国陆地碳储量的影响.研究结果表明,在整个阶段,林地将增加23％,耕地和草地将分别减少37％和11％,由此会引起我国森林碳储量每年增加66.0 Tg C,土壤碳储量每年增加13.3 Tg C,而草地碳储量则每年减少5.7 Tg C.总体而言,在环境保护政策情景下,2000-2025年中国整个陆地生态系统的碳储量将增加1.8 Pg C,年均增加量为0.074 Pg C,而这种变化89.6％的原因源于森林碳储量的增加.
정책총시통과대토지이용/토지복피적강렬영향이영향륙지탄평형.본연구지재탐토배경보호정책(주요시퇴경환림)정책대아국륙지탄평형적영향,종이위정부부문등상관정책제정자제공배경보호화응대기후변화적결책지지.이용DLS(Dynamics Land System)모형대2000-2025년배경보호정책정경하적토지이용변화모의결과화전인대탄밀도적연구성과,운용탄밀도법고산료해정책정경대중국륙지탄저량적영향.연구결과표명,재정개계단,임지장증가23％,경지화초지장분별감소37％화11％,유차회인기아국삼림탄저량매년증가66.0 Tg C,토양탄저량매년증가13.3 Tg C,이초지탄저량칙매년감소5.7 Tg C.총체이언,재배경보호정책정경하,2000-2025년중국정개륙지생태계통적탄저량장증가1.8 Pg C,년균증가량위0.074 Pg C,이저충변화89.6％적원인원우삼림탄저량적증가.
Policies always have strong impacts on land-use and land-cover change(LUCC),and thus indirectly affect the terrestrial carbon balance.In this paper,land use change from 2010 to 2025 in China was simulated with the Dynamics Land System(DLS)under an environmental conservation policy scenario,and the projected effect of this policy scenario on Chinese terrestrial carbon storage was evaluated.Under the simulation,forest coverage will increase by 23％ while cropland and grassland will decrease by 37％ and 11％ respectively.Due to the large expansion of forest coverage,the forest carbon storage will have an accumulation of 66.0 Tg C y-1.This will take place mainly in central China in a band from the northeast to southwest.Grasslands,however,will be a carbon source of 5.7 Tg C y-1 in the same period as a result of the transformation of grassland to woodlands or deserts.As the carbon storage capacity of forest soil is considerably higher than that of grassland and cropland,such LUCC will eventually result in a soil carbon accumulation of 13.3 Tg C y-1.From 2000 to 2025,the carbon storage of Chinese terrestrial ecosystem is likely to increase by 1.8 Pg C,and thus the terrestrial ecosystem will be a carbon sink of 0.074 Pg C y-1,89.6％ of which will result from an increase in forest carbon storage.