广东外语外贸大学学报
廣東外語外貿大學學報
엄동외어외무대학학보
JOURNAL OF FOREIGN STUDIES
2011年
6期
23-28
,共6页
经济增长%最终消费支出%资本形成总额%VAR模型
經濟增長%最終消費支齣%資本形成總額%VAR模型
경제증장%최종소비지출%자본형성총액%VAR모형
economic growth%final consumption%gross capital formation%vector autoregressive model
为了研究我国投资、消费对经济增长的拉动作用以及三者之间的动态关系，本文建立向量自回归模型（vAR），对我国1978—201O年最终消费支出、资本形成总额与实际国内生产总值三者的关系进行脉冲响应与方差分解分析，实证结果表明我国最终消费支出对资本形成总额与经济增长有显著的、持续的正向作用；资本形成总额对其自身、最终消费支出与经济增长的长期作用微弱。基于本研究，本文认为我国要保持持续稳定的经济增长，政府大规模投资应逐步退出，而应不断扩大内需，转变经济增长方式。
為瞭研究我國投資、消費對經濟增長的拉動作用以及三者之間的動態關繫，本文建立嚮量自迴歸模型（vAR），對我國1978—201O年最終消費支齣、資本形成總額與實際國內生產總值三者的關繫進行脈遲響應與方差分解分析，實證結果錶明我國最終消費支齣對資本形成總額與經濟增長有顯著的、持續的正嚮作用；資本形成總額對其自身、最終消費支齣與經濟增長的長期作用微弱。基于本研究，本文認為我國要保持持續穩定的經濟增長，政府大規模投資應逐步退齣，而應不斷擴大內需，轉變經濟增長方式。
위료연구아국투자、소비대경제증장적랍동작용이급삼자지간적동태관계，본문건립향량자회귀모형（vAR），대아국1978—201O년최종소비지출、자본형성총액여실제국내생산총치삼자적관계진행맥충향응여방차분해분석，실증결과표명아국최종소비지출대자본형성총액여경제증장유현저적、지속적정향작용；자본형성총액대기자신、최종소비지출여경제증장적장기작용미약。기우본연구，본문인위아국요보지지속은정적경제증장，정부대규모투자응축보퇴출，이응불단확대내수，전변경제증장방식。
To consider the role of investment and consumption in boosting economic growth and the dynamic relationship among these, this paper has established a vector autoregressive model to analyze the relationships between China＇s final con- sumption and gross capital formation as well as the GDP from 1978 to 2010, with the methods of impulse response and variance decomposition. The empirical results indicate that our final consumption has a noteworthy, continual and positive effect on economic growth and on the other hand the gross capital formation has a long-term weak effect on final consumption and economic growth as well as on itself. Based on this, it is suggested that to keep a continual and stable economic growth China should enlarge domestic demand and change economic growth mode rather than relying on large-scale governmental investment.
