大气科学进展（英文版）
大氣科學進展（英文版）
대기과학진전（영문판）
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
2010年
6期
1246-1258
,共13页
张颖%王会军%孙建奇%Helge DRANGE
張穎%王會軍%孫建奇%Helge DRANGE
장영%왕회군%손건기%Helge DRANGE
热带气旋%SRES%西太平洋%Laplace%评价模型%西北%大气环流模式%大气环流模型
熱帶氣鏇%SRES%西太平洋%Laplace%評價模型%西北%大氣環流模式%大氣環流模型
열대기선%SRES%서태평양%Laplace%평개모형%서북%대기배류모식%대기배류모형
Genesis Potential Index%tropical cyclone%western North Pacific%global warming%SRES A2
The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI） was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific （WNP）. The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models＇ ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models （CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4） found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.
