CAJ | 학술논문

本研究首先对3种重要生态位模型BIOCLIM,DOMAIN和Maxent(基于最大熵值原理模型)的分布预测精确度进行了分析和比较,再结合分布点记录以及一系列环境数据图层对3种重要外来入侵性检疫害虫(葫芦寡鬃实蝇Dacus bivittatus、埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇D.ciliatus和西瓜寡鬃实蝇D. vertebratus)的潜在适生性分布区域进行了预测和分析.在模型预测精确度的比较过程中,3种评估指标(ROC/AUC,Kappa,TSS)均显示Maxent拥有最好的预测结果和最好的运行性能.由Maxent对葫芦寡鬃实蝇、埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇和西瓜寡鬃实蝇的预测结果显示,这3种实蝇在中美洲、南美洲、东南亚和澳大利亚沿岸的广大地区在总体上具有相似的分布区域.相对而言,埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇在全球范围具有最为广泛的分布区域,除前述地区外,其潜在适生区还包括地中海沿岸、沙特阿拉伯、也门、安曼和伊朗南部的大片地区,这也意味着在3种寡鬃实蝇中,它能忍受变化幅度最广的生态、环境条件.在中国,云南和海南都极适宜于3种实蝇的生存,同时广东南部及台湾的部分地区也是它们的潜在适生区.基于Maxent的预测结果显示,相对而言,埃塞俄比亚寡鬃实蝇在中国范围也具有最为广泛的分布区域,除前述省份和地区外,四川、贵州和西藏的南部部分地区以及中国南部的部分沿海地区,也都是它的潜在适生区.综合所得出的预测结果,3种寡鬃实蝇从境外传入广东并在此定殖的风险可能性是实际存在的.Jackknife分析显示,温度以及与此有关的环境因子对于3种实蝇在全球和局部地区的分布模式和分布情况都有极大的影响,并需要进一步的研究.
본연구수선대3충중요생태위모형BIOCLIM,DOMAIN화Maxent(기우최대적치원리모형)적분포예측정학도진행료분석화비교,재결합분포점기록이급일계렬배경수거도층대3충중요외래입침성검역해충(호호과종실승Dacus bivittatus、애새아비아과종실승D.ciliatus화서과과종실승D. vertebratus)적잠재괄생성분포구역진행료예측화분석.재모형예측정학도적비교과정중,3충평고지표(ROC/AUC,Kappa,TSS)균현시Maxent옹유최호적예측결과화최호적운행성능.유Maxent대호호과종실승、애새아비아과종실승화서과과종실승적예측결과현시,저3충실승재중미주、남미주、동남아화오대리아연안적엄대지구재총체상구유상사적분포구역.상대이언,애새아비아과종실승재전구범위구유최위엄범적분포구역,제전술지구외,기잠재괄생구환포괄지중해연안、사특아랍백、야문、안만화이랑남부적대편지구,저야의미착재3충과종실승중,타능인수변화폭도최엄적생태、배경조건.재중국,운남화해남도겁괄의우3충실승적생존,동시엄동남부급태만적부분지구야시타문적잠재괄생구.기우Maxent적예측결과현시,상대이언,애새아비아과종실승재중국범위야구유최위엄범적분포구역,제전술성빈화지구외,사천、귀주화서장적남부부분지구이급중국남부적부분연해지구,야도시타적잠재괄생구.종합소득출적예측결과,3충과종실승종경외전입엄동병재차정식적풍험가능성시실제존재적.Jackknife분석현시,온도이급여차유관적배경인자대우3충실승재전구화국부지구적분포모식화분포정황도유겁대적영향,병수요진일보적연구.
In order to predict and analyse the potential geographical distributions of three important quarantine invasive pests.Dacus bivittatus.D.ciliatus and D.vertebratus,three ecological niche modeling techniques,BIOCLIM.DOMAIN and Maximum entroPY niche.based modeling(Maxent)were implemented by using distribution records of the three fruit fly species and a set of environmental predictor variables.Differences in prediction performance of the three models with thresholds were observed.An evaluation using independent records of D.bivittatus showed that Maxent offers the most accurate predictions than two other models based on three values of ROC/AUC.Kappa.and TTS.Prediction outcomes made by Maxent revealed that the three fruit fly species have broadly similar potential ranges in Central American,South American,Southeast Asia,and Coastalarea8 of Australia in general.D.ciliatus has the comparatively widest potential range among the three species,including Coastal areas of Mediterranean Sea,Saudi Arabia,Yemen,Oman and South Iran,suggesting that it may be tolerant of the widest range of climatic conditions among the three species.In China,while large area8 ofYunnan and Hainan are very habitable for all the three fruit fly species,southern part of Guangdong and Taiwan are also their habitable areas.D.ciliatus has the widest potential distribution area.with southern part ot btenuan,Guizhou and Tibet plus the coastal areas of southern China all being its suitable areas.The risk of the three fruit fly species permanently establishing in Guangdong if introduced exist but low.Jackknife analysis revealed that temperature and its variation have comparative significant influence on the distribution patterns of three fruit fly species both in global and restricted regions.