CAJ | 학술논문

交通需求预测中会有很多不确定性因素.系统的不确定分析可以分析模型输出的可信程度,并且界定影响不确定性的关键因素.采用了基于敏感性分析的方法(SAM)分析交通需求组合模型(CTDM)的不确定性.CTDM基于出行者的理性行为,并可描述为一个非线性规划问题,从而分析敏感性.不确定性分析包括模型输入的不确定性和模型参数的不确定性.与基于随机抽样的分析方法相比,基于敏感性分析的方法在大大减少计算量的同时,可以得到近似的精度,并且可以同时或分开考虑输入的不确定性和参数的不确定性.研究认为,提高参数精度比提高输入精度能更有效地提高输出结果的可信水平.
교통수구예측중회유흔다불학정성인소.계통적불학정분석가이분석모형수출적가신정도,병차계정영향불학정성적관건인소.채용료기우민감성분석적방법(SAM)분석교통수구조합모형(CTDM)적불학정성.CTDM기우출행자적이성행위,병가묘술위일개비선성규화문제,종이분석민감성.불학정성분석포괄모형수입적불학정성화모형삼수적불학정성.여기우수궤추양적분석방법상비,기우민감성분석적방법재대대감소계산량적동시,가이득도근사적정도,병차가이동시혹분개고필수입적불학정성화삼수적불학정성.연구인위,제고삼수정도비제고수입정도능경유효지제고수출결과적가신수평.
Travel demand forecasts are subject to great uncertainties.A systematic uncertainty analysis provides insight into the level of confidence in the model outputs,and can lead to identification of the critical sources of uncertainty.An uncertainty analysis is made of a combined travel demand model (CTDM) with the sensitivity-based analytical method(SAM).The CTDM,on the basis of a single unifying rationale,is formulated as a nonlinear programming problem,and the sensitivity analysis is also made.The uncertainty analysis includes both input uncertainty and parameter uncertainty.The SAM,which requires less computational effort than sampling-based method in the uncertainty analysis,can obtain similar accuracy and can investigate the input uncertainty and parameter uncertainty separately.In order to improve credible level of outputs,to increase the accuracy of parameters is more effective than that of inputs.