气候变化研究进展
氣候變化研究進展
기후변화연구진전
ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
2008年
z1期
32-36
,共5页
张增信%张强%张金池%Jiang Tong%Klaus Fraedrich
張增信%張彊%張金池%Jiang Tong%Klaus Fraedrich
장증신%장강%장금지%Jiang Tong%Klaus Fraedrich
Yangtze River basin%extreme precipitation%daily maximum rainfall%the year 2050%projection
Daily maximum rainfall(R1D)was higher in the Jialing River basin,the Taihu Lake area and the mid-lower main stream section of the Yangtze River basin in the 1990s,and there was a good relationship between ECHAM5/MPI-OM model simulation and the observed data about extreme precipitation(R1D).Under the IPCC SRES A2,A1B,and B1 scenarios,R1Ds are all projected to be in increasing trends in the upper Yangtze River basin during 2001-2050,and R1D shows a more significant increasing tendency under the A2 scenario when compared with the A1B scenario before 2020.With respect to the middle and lower Yangtze River basin,an increasing tendency is projected before 2025,and since then the increasing tendency will become insignificant.There might be more floods to the south of the Yangtze River and more droughts to the north in the next decades.
