湖南农业科学
湖南農業科學
호남농업과학
HUNAN AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
2009年
10期
85-86,89
,共3页
信志红%张西健%仲光嵬%刘晋生
信誌紅%張西健%仲光嵬%劉晉生
신지홍%장서건%중광외%류진생
沿海蝗区%东亚飞蝗%发生量%气象因子%预报模型
沿海蝗區%東亞飛蝗%髮生量%氣象因子%預報模型
연해황구%동아비황%발생량%기상인자%예보모형
coastal locust area%oriental migratory locust%occurrence amount%meteorological factor%,forecast model
采用逐步回归法对黄河三角洲沿海蝗区近26 a的东亚飞蝗凋查资料和气象观测资料进行分析,筛选适合的气象预报因子,分别建立东亚飞蝗夏、秋蝗发生面积和夏蝗发生密度统计预报模型,上述预报模型均通过0.05显著性统计检验.对建模内预报值和2009年预报应用效果进行验证,各预报模犁预报准确率较高.
採用逐步迴歸法對黃河三角洲沿海蝗區近26 a的東亞飛蝗凋查資料和氣象觀測資料進行分析,篩選適閤的氣象預報因子,分彆建立東亞飛蝗夏、鞦蝗髮生麵積和夏蝗髮生密度統計預報模型,上述預報模型均通過0.05顯著性統計檢驗.對建模內預報值和2009年預報應用效果進行驗證,各預報模犛預報準確率較高.
채용축보회귀법대황하삼각주연해황구근26 a적동아비황조사자료화기상관측자료진행분석,사선괄합적기상예보인자,분별건립동아비황하、추황발생면적화하황발생밀도통계예보모형,상술예보모형균통과0.05현저성통계검험.대건모내예보치화2009년예보응용효과진행험증,각예보모리예보준학솔교고.
The survey data and meteorological data of oriental migratory locust in coastal locust area of the Yellow River delta in the past 26 years were analyzed by stepwise regression method. The suited meteorological forecast factors were selected to establish the statistic forecast models for the occurrence area of summer locust and autumn locust and the occurrence density of summer locust respectively, and these forecast models all passed the 0.05 significance statistic tests. The forecast value and forecast applying effect for 2009 of each model were verified, the results showed that there was a high forecast accuracy of each forecast model.
