CAJ | 학술논문

目的了解1999-2008年山东省1岁以下婴儿麻疹患病的时空分布特征.方法收集山东省1999-2008年所有县(市、区)1岁以下婴儿麻疹发病数据,共5309例.描述麻疹流行特征,计算出各县(市、区)婴儿年发病率；应用ArcGIS9.3软件绘制疾病空间图,通过GeoDa0.95i-beta软件进行空间自相关分析.结果山东省报告1岁以下婴儿发病率从1999年的23.45/10万(206例)上升到2008年的269.60/10万(2791例)；5309例麻疹患儿中,除12月龄外,各月龄均有发病,主要集中在6～9月龄(3494例),8月龄最多,占20.7％(1100/5309)；麻疹在山东的流行高峰期为3-5月份,占45.5％ (2414/5309)；时空分布显示,在时间分布上先降后升,在空间分布上由东向西逐渐增高；1999、2001-2002、2005-2008年的山东省婴儿麻疹发病率的全局Moran's I值分别为0.346、0.150、0.396、0.213、0.477、0.354、0.331(P值均＜0.01)；2004年发病率的全局Moran's I值为0.076(P ＜0.05).局部空间自相关分析发现,鲁西南和西北地区为婴儿麻疹高发热点区.结论 1999-2008年山东省1以下岁婴儿麻疹发病率上升明显,以6～9月龄高发,3-5月份为流行高峰；该病存在空间正相关,具有明显的地区分布规律,存在聚集区.
목적 료해1999-2008년산동성1세이하영인마진환병적시공분포특정.방법 수집산동성1999-2008년소유현(시、구)1세이하영인마진발병수거,공5309례.묘술마진류행특정,계산출각현(시、구)영인년발병솔；응용ArcGIS9.3연건회제질병공간도,통과GeoDa0.95i-beta연건진행공간자상관분석.결과 산동성보고1세이하영인발병솔종1999년적23.45/10만(206례)상승도2008년적269.60/10만(2791례)；5309례마진환인중,제12월령외,각월령균유발병,주요집중재6～9월령(3494례),8월령최다,점20.7％(1100/5309)；마진재산동적류행고봉기위3-5월빈,점45.5％ (2414/5309)；시공분포현시,재시간분포상선강후승,재공간분포상유동향서축점증고；1999、2001-2002、2005-2008년적산동성영인마진발병솔적전국Moran's I치분별위0.346、0.150、0.396、0.213、0.477、0.354、0.331(P치균＜0.01)；2004년발병솔적전국Moran's I치위0.076(P ＜0.05).국부공간자상관분석발현,로서남화서북지구위영인마진고발열점구.결론 1999-2008년산동성1이하세영인마진발병솔상승명현,이6～9월령고발,3-5월빈위류행고봉；해병존재공간정상관,구유명현적지구분포규률,존재취집구.
Objective To explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of measles patients younger than 1 year old in Shandong province.Methods A total of 5309 cases of measles,whose patients were younger than 1 year old in Shandong province between year 1999 and 2008 were collected.The epidemic features of measles were described,and the annual infant incidence was calculated.Software ArcGIS9.3 was applied to draw the spatial map of the disease,and the software GeoDa0.95i-beta was adopted to analyze the spatial autocorrelation.Results The incidence among infants younger than 1 year old reported in Shandong province rose from 23.45/100 000 (206 cases) in 1999 to 269.60/100 000 ( 2791 cases ) in 2008.5309 cases covered all month-aged infants under 1 year old,except 12 months old.Most patients (3494 cases) aged between 6 -9 months old; especially the infants around 8 months old,accounting for 20.7％ (1100/5309).The epidemic peak was between March and May,accounting for 45.5％ (2414/5309).The spatial and temporal distribution features showed an up and down temporal trend and an increase from east to west in spatial trend.The global Moran's I values of measles incidence among infants in Shandong province were 0.346,0.150,0.396,0.213,0.477,0.354 and 0.331 in year 1999,2001 -2002,2005 -2008 (P ＜0.01 )and 0.076 in year 2004 ( P ＜ 0.05 ).The local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that southwest and northwest districts of Shandong were highly clustered districts of measles.Conclusion In Shandong,the measles incidence among infants younger than 1 year old rose obviously; especially the infants aged between 6 -9 months age.The epidemic peak was between March and May.A positive spatial correlation was found,the disease showed a distinct regional distribution feature,and a cluster district was found.