CAJ | 학술논문

采用可视化仿真模型对甲型H1N1流感在不同人口密度街道、社区的传播进行模拟仿真,探寻传播规律和特点,为采取合理防控措施提供科学依据.将全部人群按易感-感染-移出(SIR)模型划分为易感人群、感染人群和免疫人群,人群的年龄构成根据第五次人口普查基本情况设置,个体依据网络随机接触模型进行接触与运动,致死率与感染方式按照甲型H1N1流感医学描述进行设定.实例分析结果表明,感染率与社区街道人口密度有密切关系,疫情前期人口感染率增长速度较快,人口密度在50人/hm2以上的社区持续传播甲型H1N1流感的概率较大;对照组试验表明,在社区内接种疫苗可以有效地抑制甲型H1N1流感的传播.结论 :人口密度、是否接种疫苗是甲型H1N1流感流行的危险因素.
채용가시화방진모형대갑형H1N1류감재불동인구밀도가도、사구적전파진행모의방진,탐심전파규률화특점,위채취합리방공조시제공과학의거.장전부인군안역감-감염-이출(SIR)모형화분위역감인군、감염인군화면역인군,인군적년령구성근거제오차인구보사기본정황설치,개체의거망락수궤접촉모형진행접촉여운동,치사솔여감염방식안조갑형H1N1류감의학묘술진행설정.실례분석결과표명,감염솔여사구가도인구밀도유밀절관계,역정전기인구감염솔증장속도교쾌,인구밀도재50인/hm2이상적사구지속전파갑형H1N1류감적개솔교대;대조조시험표명,재사구내접충역묘가이유효지억제갑형H1N1류감적전파.결론 :인구밀도、시부접충역묘시갑형H1N1류감류행적위험인소.
A simulation experiment was carried out by applying the simulation model to spread of influenza A (H1N1) in communities with different population density. Population at the community-level was divided into susceptible, infected and recovered ones, according to the susceptive-infective-removal (SIR) model, and the age structure of the population was set on the basis of data from the Fifth Population Census. Contact and moving of the individuals were based on the Network Random Contact Model and the mortality and infection mode were established in line with the influenza A (H 1N 1) medical description. The results of an example analysis showed that the infection rate was closely related to the density of the community-based population while the rate on early infection grew rapidly. Influenza A (H1N1) seemed more likely to break out in the community with population density of over 50/hm2. Comparative tests showed that vaccination could effectively restrain the spread of influenza A (H1N1) at the community level. Conclusion Population density,and the coverage of influenza vaccination were risk factors for influenza A (H1N1) epidemics.Results of the experiment showed of value, for prevention and vaccination on this topic.