中国电机工程学报
中國電機工程學報
중국전궤공정학보
ZHONGGUO DIANJI GONGCHENG XUEBAO
2011年
34期
53-60
,共8页
电力系统%可靠性评估%分割多目标风险分析%条件风险%风险分布%概率可靠性评估%容量停运表
電力繫統%可靠性評估%分割多目標風險分析%條件風險%風險分佈%概率可靠性評估%容量停運錶
전력계통%가고성평고%분할다목표풍험분석%조건풍험%풍험분포%개솔가고성평고%용량정운표
power systems%reliability assessment%partitioned multi-objective risk method%conditional risk%risk distribution%probabilistic reliability evaluation%capacity outage table
针对平均风险指标无法区分高损失-低概率事件及低损失-高概率事件的缺点,提出了电力系统的分割多目标风险分析框架。该框架将电力系统的风险状态细分为低损失、中等损失和高损失3个风险范围,并提出3个损失范围条件风险函数和条件风险概率的概念。采用经典的容量停运表模型,建立了这些条件期望指标的计算方法。对IEEE-RTS及TH-RTS2000系统进行了分割多目标风险评估,研究不同负荷水平下系统风险在3个损失范围的分布及转移情况,并分析损失分割点对系统风险的影响。通过分割多目标风险分析,风险分析者和决策者可以权衡系统的平均风险以及高、中、低损失范围的条件期望风险,从而对系统的风险状况有一个全面和深入的了解。
針對平均風險指標無法區分高損失-低概率事件及低損失-高概率事件的缺點,提齣瞭電力繫統的分割多目標風險分析框架。該框架將電力繫統的風險狀態細分為低損失、中等損失和高損失3箇風險範圍,併提齣3箇損失範圍條件風險函數和條件風險概率的概唸。採用經典的容量停運錶模型,建立瞭這些條件期望指標的計算方法。對IEEE-RTS及TH-RTS2000繫統進行瞭分割多目標風險評估,研究不同負荷水平下繫統風險在3箇損失範圍的分佈及轉移情況,併分析損失分割點對繫統風險的影響。通過分割多目標風險分析,風險分析者和決策者可以權衡繫統的平均風險以及高、中、低損失範圍的條件期望風險,從而對繫統的風險狀況有一箇全麵和深入的瞭解。
침대평균풍험지표무법구분고손실-저개솔사건급저손실-고개솔사건적결점,제출료전력계통적분할다목표풍험분석광가。해광가장전력계통적풍험상태세분위저손실、중등손실화고손실3개풍험범위,병제출3개손실범위조건풍험함수화조건풍험개솔적개념。채용경전적용량정운표모형,건립료저사조건기망지표적계산방법。대IEEE-RTS급TH-RTS2000계통진행료분할다목표풍험평고,연구불동부하수평하계통풍험재3개손실범위적분포급전이정황,병분석손실분할점대계통풍험적영향。통과분할다목표풍험분석,풍험분석자화결책자가이권형계통적평균풍험이급고、중、저손실범위적조건기망풍험,종이대계통적풍험상황유일개전면화심입적료해。
The average reliability indices can not distinguish between the events of low probability but high damage and high probability low damage.In order to overcome these shortcomings,this paper proposes an extended risk analysis framework for the power system based on the partitioned multi-objective risk method.In the extended framework,the risk states were divided into three ranges： low-damage,moderate-damage and high-damage domains,and three conditional risk functions and conditional probabilities were established.On the basis of the capacity outage probability table,we proposed the risk assessment algorithm to calculate the conditional risk indices.Finally,the IEEE-RTS and the TH-RTS2000 were evaluated by the proposed framework and algorithm.The risk distribution and variation in different load levels were investigated and the effects of the damage-partitioned points were discussed.In the extended risk analysis framework,the analysts and decision makers can make trade-off between the average risk and the conditional risks of the high,medium,and low damage ranges,and they can comprehend the risk levels of the power system in a holistic and deep way.
