CAJ | 학술논문

针对煤矿底板突水包含很多不确定因素和时空随机性的特点,探索多属性决策理论在底板突水预测中应用研究.采用案例统计与专家分析相结合的方法,赋予影响底板突水各种因素的权重,建立突水概率指数法的融合规则,提出突水概率指数法预测采场工作面底板突水的新方法.在获得底板突水概率指数的基础上,基于D-S证据理论,建立由突水、临界、不突水、不确定组成的识别框架,构建以富水性指数、构造指数、隔水层指数、水压指数、矿压指数为证据体的突水融合决策模型.通过在肥城煤田实例应用,说明经证据体的多次融合,能够提高突水概率的可信度,降低不确定性,证明基于多属性决策和D-S证据理论建立的工作面底板突水两级融合决策模型的有效性和可行性.
침대매광저판돌수포함흔다불학정인소화시공수궤성적특점,탐색다속성결책이론재저판돌수예측중응용연구.채용안례통계여전가분석상결합적방법,부여영향저판돌수각충인소적권중,건립돌수개솔지수법적융합규칙,제출돌수개솔지수법예측채장공작면저판돌수적신방법.재획득저판돌수개솔지수적기출상,기우D-S증거이론,건립유돌수、림계、불돌수、불학정조성적식별광가,구건이부수성지수、구조지수、격수층지수、수압지수、광압지수위증거체적돌수융합결책모형.통과재비성매전실례응용,설명경증거체적다차융합,능구제고돌수개솔적가신도,강저불학정성,증명기우다속성결책화D-S증거이론건립적공작면저판돌수량급융합결책모형적유효성화가행성.
In view of characteristics of coal mine water-inrush from floor containing a lot of uncertain factors and time-location randomness,the multi-attribute decision-making theory in the prediction of water-inrush from floor applied research is explored. With case statistics and expert analysis,the weights are governed to the factors which affect water-inrush from floor. The fusion rule is established for water-inrush probability ratio,and a new method of water-inrush probability ratio is put forward for water-inrush from floor. It provides a technique for decision- making water-inrush from floor with water-inrush probability ratio. Based on the D-S evidence theory,the frame of discernment including water-inrush,critical condition,no water-inrush and uncertain information,is proposed and the water-inrush integration decision-making model is established considering aquifer water-bearing ratio,structure ratio,water-resisting layer thickness ratio,underground water pressure ratio and underground pressure ratio as evidences. With the practical application examples in Feicheng coal field,it shows that the degree of confidence of water-inrush probability can be improved and indeterminacy is reduced by several times of information fusion,and the validity and feasibility of proposed model are proved.