CAJ | 학술논문

应用“八五”攻关推广的有关震群参数计算的软件，对华北地区(33°～43°N，114°～124°E)自1970年以来所发生的40次震群事件的各项参数(b，U，H，K，F，ρ等值)进行了计算，旨在依据前兆震群的判定指标，寻找前兆震群与中强以上地震(MS≥)的对应关系。结果表明，无论是单项指标或综合指标的报准率均在65%左右，仅有个别达到75%以上，并且有约30%具有前兆意义的震群属于漏报和虚报。所以，如何判定前兆震群和充分利用前兆震群预报地震和监视未来地震活动有待更深入的研究和探讨。
응용“팔오”공관추엄적유관진군삼수계산적연건，대화북지구(33°～43°N，114°～124°E)자1970년이래소발생적40차진군사건적각항삼수(b，U，H，K，F，ρ등치)진행료계산，지재의거전조진군적판정지표，심조전조진군여중강이상지진(MS≥)적대응관계。결과표명，무론시단항지표혹종합지표적보준솔균재65%좌우，부유개별체도75%이상，병차유약30%구유전조의의적진군속우루보화허보。소이，여하판정전조진군화충분이용전조진군예보지진화감시미래지진활동유대경심입적연구화탐토。
By using the software for calculating the parameters of clustersof seismic events,which is popularized by the surmounting technical difficulty item in"the eighth five years",the all parameters(b,U,H,K,F,ρ value etc)of 40 clusters of seismic events that have occurred since 1970 in north China(the region is 33°～43° N,114°～124° E)have been calculated.According to the indices for determining precursory clustering earthquake,the purpose of this research is to seek the corresponding relationship between the precursory cluster of seismic events and moderate or large earthquake(MS≥).The results is as follow:by using a single judging index or a synthetic judging index,the rate of accurate alarm is always about 65%,and only very few indices are up to 75%,and 30% of the clusters of seismic event which have the precursor meaning belong to the false alarm and failure alarm.So,how to determine precursory clustering earthquake and how to fully utilize it to forecast earthquake and to monitor earthquake activity need to be deep studied and probed.