CAJ | 학술논문

依据2001～2007年全国农村信用社农户小额信用贷款的年末余额数据,采用BASS模型对我国农村信用社农户小额信用贷款增长进行了分析.结果表明,村信用社农户小额信用贷款余额和联保贷款余额具有BASS模型的增长机理,可以用BASS模型对这2种贷款的动态增长特征进行分析和预测;2种小额信用贷款已经都处在了增长速度不断下降阶段,农户小额信用贷款增长的速度明显下降;农户小额信用贷款和联保贷款都属于内部影响或者称示范效应主导增长型金融产品.
의거2001～2007년전국농촌신용사농호소액신용대관적년말여액수거,채용BASS모형대아국농촌신용사농호소액신용대관증장진행료분석.결과표명,촌신용사농호소액신용대관여액화련보대관여액구유BASS모형적증장궤리,가이용BASS모형대저2충대관적동태증장특정진행분석화예측;2충소액신용대관이경도처재료증장속도불단하강계단,농호소액신용대관증장적속도명현하강;농호소액신용대관화련보대관도속우내부영향혹자칭시범효응주도증장형금융산품.
According to the balance data of farmer's small credit loans of national rural credit cooperatives at the year end from 2001 to 2007,the growth of farmer's small credit loans of rural credit cooperatives in China was analyzed by using BASS model.The results showed that the farmer's small credit loan balance of villages and cooperative loan balance had the increasing mechanism of BASS model.The dynamic growth characteristics of the two kinds of loans could be analyzed and predicted by using BASS model.The two kinds of loans were both in the stages of decreasing growth rate continuously.The growth rate of farmer's small credit loans decreased obviously.The farmer's small credit loans and cooperative loan guided the increasing financial products because the inner effects and demonstration effects.