CAJ | 학술논문

HRT地震前兆波模型(机制)%PS100高精密度大地电测系统%20余个强震短临前兆震例%HRT前兆波的重现性与规律性%实现地震预报的可行性 HRT地震前兆波模型(機製)%PS100高精密度大地電測繫統%20餘箇彊震短臨前兆震例%HRT前兆波的重現性與規律性%實現地震預報的可行性
HRT지진전조파모형(궤제)%PS100고정밀도대지전측계통%20여개강진단림전조진례%HRT전조파적중현성여규률성%실현지진예보적가행성
The model (mechanism) of HRT precursor wave%The PS100 high-precision geoelectric measurement system%Cases recorded before more than twenty strong earthquakes%Repeatability and regularity of HRT precursor wave%Feasible of earthquake prediction

PS-100仪器是我们研制的抗干扰性能极强的、新一代高精密度地电测量系统.设在川滇地区的一个PS100台网于苏门答腊海啸大地震前记录到HRT前兆波动.本文将主要分析报道来自震源区的这种前兆波,特别是其传播特性.潮汐力驱动的谐和振荡波(HT波)具有与潮汐力相同的周期(如MS_f,K_1,M_2等),但其振幅却仅在震前(约3个月)才出现异常增大;潮汐力驱动的共振振荡波(RT波),出现主震前2天(北京时2004-12-24的10时),RT波分为纵波与横波.初步确定其纵波波速V_1约为307 km/h,横波波速V_s约为126 km/h.它们可能是在地壳多孔岩石孔隙流体中以声模式传播的一类波.对RT波,苏门答腊主震断层系统的固有周期T_0约为5～6 h,其幅度可达2.9%(超出观测标准偏差17倍),成为极其显著的异常.RT波通常以突然急剧变化的方式达到其峰值.震源区多孔介质的固体基质骨架与其间孔隙流体的耦合振动满足共振条件时,即从震中区同时发射出(纵、横)RT波.苏门答腊M_w9.0级地震前首次记录到RT波,此后已在20余次强震前记录到HRT波.诸强震前所记的HRT波彼此可以很好地对比,表现出一定的重复性、一致性和规律性.汶川M_s8.0级地震前,当时唯一仍在工作的红格台(距震中465 km),也记录到HRT波.我们还在震前发现红格台于2008年5月12日凌晨(0～5时)记录到与汶川地震有成因联系的、显著临震信息.(从2004年在川滇地区增设PS100台网捕捉地方强震的短临前兆开始,到汶川地震前发现红格台记录到临震信息的)这些事实有力地证明:HRT前兆波是客观存在的;地震,特别是强震是有前兆的;是可以预测、预报的,在不太远的将来,实现强震的短临预报是可行的.如果有一布设合理的PS-100台网,根据震前所记RT波,提前1～3天定量地预测强震的三要素是可能的.
PS-100의기시아문연제적항간우성능겁강적、신일대고정밀도지전측량계통.설재천전지구적일개PS100태망우소문답석해소대지진전기록도HRT전조파동.본문장주요분석보도래자진원구적저충전조파,특별시기전파특성.조석력구동적해화진탕파(HT파)구유여조석력상동적주기(여MS_f,K_1,M_2등),단기진폭각부재진전(약3개월)재출현이상증대;조석력구동적공진진탕파(RT파),출현주진전2천(북경시2004-12-24적10시),RT파분위종파여횡파.초보학정기종파파속V_1약위307 km/h,횡파파속V_s약위126 km/h.타문가능시재지각다공암석공극류체중이성모식전파적일류파.대RT파,소문답석주진단층계통적고유주기T_0약위5～6 h,기폭도가체2.9%(초출관측표준편차17배),성위겁기현저적이상.RT파통상이돌연급극변화적방식체도기봉치.진원구다공개질적고체기질골가여기간공극류체적우합진동만족공진조건시,즉종진중구동시발사출(종、횡)RT파.소문답석M_w9.0급지진전수차기록도RT파,차후이재20여차강진전기록도HRT파.제강진전소기적HRT파피차가이흔호지대비,표현출일정적중복성、일치성화규률성.문천M_s8.0급지진전,당시유일잉재공작적홍격태(거진중465 km),야기록도HRT파.아문환재진전발현홍격태우2008년5월12일릉신(0～5시)기록도여문천지진유성인련계적、현저림진신식.(종2004년재천전지구증설PS100태망포착지방강진적단림전조개시,도문천지진전발현홍격태기록도림진신식적)저사사실유력지증명:HRT전조파시객관존재적;지진,특별시강진시유전조적;시가이예측、예보적,재불태원적장래,실현강진적단림예보시가행적.여과유일포설합리적PS-100태망,근거진전소기RT파,제전1～3천정량지예측강진적삼요소시가능적.
The PS100 system is a newly developed anti-interference high-precision geoelectric measurement system. A network of PS100 stations in Sichuan and Yunnan, China has recorded the HRT precursor wave to the M_w9.0 Sumatra tsunami earthquake. In this article we only analyze and report the precursor wave from the epicentral area, especially the characteristics of its propagation. Harmonic oscillation waves driven by tidal forces (HT waves) with periods of tidal forces (e.g. MS_f, K_1, M_2, etc) and increased amplitude anomaly had appeared about 3 months before the Sumatra earthquake; resonance oscillation waves driven by tidal forces (RT waves) had appeared 2 days before the earthquake (i.e. 2004-12-24, 10:00 BJT). The RT waves contained longitudinal waves and transverse waves. As preliminarily estimated, velocity of the longitudinal waves was V_l≈307 km/h, and velocity of the transverse waves was V_t≈126 km/h, which were an acoustic mode wave propagating in the pore fluids in the porous rocks of the crust. For the RT waves, the natural period of the fault system was T_0=5～6 h; the amplitude was as large as 2.9% (17 times higher than the standard deviation of the observations), so that the anomaly was very remarkable; the peak change was exceptionally sudden and sharp. The RT waves started from the hypocenter were emitted by the fact that the porous solid network system couples to the fluid in its pores and the condition of resonance is met. This is the first record of precursor wave. Thereafter, we have captured HRT waves from more than twenty strong earthquakes, which are well-matched and show repeatability, consistency and regularity. Before the Wenchuan M_s8.0 earthquake, we recorded the HRT precursor wave at the only operating station in Hongge (HG, Δ=465 km). We found that the significant impending signal has a causal relationship with the Wenchuan earthquake, which recorded at the HG station in the early morning (0～5AM) of 12th/May/2008. These facts demonstrated that the HRT precursor waves do exist and an earthquake, particularly a strong earthquake, has precursors, and it is predictable. Short-term or impending earthquake prediction is feasible in the near future. If we have a reasonably designed network of PS100 stations, it will be possible to quantitatively predict the three factors of certain strong earthquakes 1～3 days in advance, according to the appearance of RT wave before the earthquake.