中国人口·资源与环境
中國人口·資源與環境
중국인구·자원여배경
CHINA POPULATION RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT
2010年
4期
169-174
,共6页
原生资源%再生资源%VAR模型%脉冲响应分析%方差分解%铅
原生資源%再生資源%VAR模型%脈遲響應分析%方差分解%鉛
원생자원%재생자원%VAR모형%맥충향응분석%방차분해%연
primary resource%secondary resource%VAR model%impulse response analysis%variance decomposition%lead
从循环经济视角出发,聚焦这种新经济模式下原生资源和再生资源的动态关系,以世界铅资源为实证对象,利用1974-2006年世界铅资源的相关时间序列数据组织样本,基于协整关系分析构建VAR模型,在VAR模型框架下研究原生铅产量和再生铅产量对来自不同冲击的脉冲响应函数和方差分解.研究结果表明:原生铅产量、再生铅产量与铅消费总量之间存在着一个协整关系.这意味着在当前经济系统中,对铅资源是刚性需求,没有有效替代品,其供给的途径只有原生铅和再生铅两种.另外,对于来自市场消费规模、原生和再生铅产量的变动冲击,再生铅所做出的响应比原生铅更富有弹性,这一结论可以很好的阐释为什么再生资源市场比原生资源市场波动大的现象.
從循環經濟視角齣髮,聚焦這種新經濟模式下原生資源和再生資源的動態關繫,以世界鉛資源為實證對象,利用1974-2006年世界鉛資源的相關時間序列數據組織樣本,基于協整關繫分析構建VAR模型,在VAR模型框架下研究原生鉛產量和再生鉛產量對來自不同遲擊的脈遲響應函數和方差分解.研究結果錶明:原生鉛產量、再生鉛產量與鉛消費總量之間存在著一箇協整關繫.這意味著在噹前經濟繫統中,對鉛資源是剛性需求,沒有有效替代品,其供給的途徑隻有原生鉛和再生鉛兩種.另外,對于來自市場消費規模、原生和再生鉛產量的變動遲擊,再生鉛所做齣的響應比原生鉛更富有彈性,這一結論可以很好的闡釋為什麽再生資源市場比原生資源市場波動大的現象.
종순배경제시각출발,취초저충신경제모식하원생자원화재생자원적동태관계,이세계연자원위실증대상,이용1974-2006년세계연자원적상관시간서렬수거조직양본,기우협정관계분석구건VAR모형,재VAR모형광가하연구원생연산량화재생연산량대래자불동충격적맥충향응함수화방차분해.연구결과표명:원생연산량、재생연산량여연소비총량지간존재착일개협정관계.저의미착재당전경제계통중,대연자원시강성수구,몰유유효체대품,기공급적도경지유원생연화재생연량충.령외,대우래자시장소비규모、원생화재생연산량적변동충격,재생연소주출적향응비원생연경부유탄성,저일결론가이흔호적천석위십요재생자원시장비원생자원시장파동대적현상.
Starting from the perspective of circular economy, the article focuses on the dynamic relationship between primary resource and secondary resource in the new economic mode. An empirical study on world lead has been completed by using the related time series data from 1974 to 2006 and a VAR (Vecter Autoregression estimation) model is constructed based on the co-integration analysis. Then under VAR framework, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition of primary lead production and secondary lead production from different impulses are conducted. The empirical results show that a co-integration relationship exists among primary lead production, secondary lead production and the total consumption of lead, which suggests that there is a rigid requirement for lead in current economic system and there is no substitutes except the only two supply ways: primary lead and secondary lead. In addition, facing the impact of change in consumption scale of market, production of primary and secondary lead, the response of secondary lead is of more elasticity than that of primary lead. This conclusion can be well explained why the secondary resource markets are often claimed to be more volatile than primary resource markets.
