地质找矿论丛
地質找礦論叢
지질조광론총
CONTRIBUTIONS TO GEOLOGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES RESERCH
2010年
1期
50-54
,共5页
蒙特卡洛法%储量估计%预测模拟%概率统计
矇特卡洛法%儲量估計%預測模擬%概率統計
몽특잡락법%저량고계%예측모의%개솔통계
Monte-Carlo method%reserves estimation%forcast simulation%probabilistic statistical method
蒙特卡洛法是根据统计抽样理论,通过对随机变量函数的概率模拟、统计试验来进行近似求解的方法.矿产资源无论是作为地质过程的产物还是作为地质观测结果都具有随机性,对资源量的估算一般受概率法则的支配,因而是一定概率意义下的估算.蒙特卡洛方法能够正确地模拟随机变量的分布,再现其取值规律.文章结合实例阐述了蒙特卡洛模型在矿产资源量预测中的应用.
矇特卡洛法是根據統計抽樣理論,通過對隨機變量函數的概率模擬、統計試驗來進行近似求解的方法.礦產資源無論是作為地質過程的產物還是作為地質觀測結果都具有隨機性,對資源量的估算一般受概率法則的支配,因而是一定概率意義下的估算.矇特卡洛方法能夠正確地模擬隨機變量的分佈,再現其取值規律.文章結閤實例闡述瞭矇特卡洛模型在礦產資源量預測中的應用.
몽특잡락법시근거통계추양이론,통과대수궤변량함수적개솔모의、통계시험래진행근사구해적방법.광산자원무론시작위지질과정적산물환시작위지질관측결과도구유수궤성,대자원량적고산일반수개솔법칙적지배,인이시일정개솔의의하적고산.몽특잡락방법능구정학지모의수궤변량적분포,재현기취치규률.문장결합실례천술료몽특잡락모형재광산자원량예측중적응용.
Monte-Carlo method is derived from statistically sampling theory with solution acquired approximately by probability simulation of the random varible function and statistical tests. As a matter of fact, whether mineral resource is a product of the geological process or that of geological observation is all random. Generally, the mineral resource assessment is governed by probability principle and is of probability sense. Monte-Carlo method can simulate accurately the distribution of random varibles and reappears sampling regularity. This paper expatiates the application of Monte-Carlo method in the assessment of mineral reserves combined with examples.
