交通科技与经济
交通科技與經濟
교통과기여경제
Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
2009年
4期
18-19
,共2页
GM(1,1)模型%残差GM(1,1)模型%汽车货运量%预测
GM(1,1)模型%殘差GM(1,1)模型%汽車貨運量%預測
GM(1,1)모형%잔차GM(1,1)모형%기차화운량%예측
GM(1,1) model%residual GM(1,1) model%volume of freight%forecast
针对近年来我国汽车货运量增长迅速的特点,运用灰色系统预测模型GM(1,1)对某地汽车货运量趋势进行预测,通过残差GM(1,1)模型对主模型的修正,并用后验差检验法对模型精度进行分析和检验,得到一个精确度非常高的预测模型,该模型符合汽车货运量的预测,并在实际预测应用中取得较好效果.
針對近年來我國汽車貨運量增長迅速的特點,運用灰色繫統預測模型GM(1,1)對某地汽車貨運量趨勢進行預測,通過殘差GM(1,1)模型對主模型的脩正,併用後驗差檢驗法對模型精度進行分析和檢驗,得到一箇精確度非常高的預測模型,該模型符閤汽車貨運量的預測,併在實際預測應用中取得較好效果.
침대근년래아국기차화운량증장신속적특점,운용회색계통예측모형GM(1,1)대모지기차화운량추세진행예측,통과잔차GM(1,1)모형대주모형적수정,병용후험차검험법대모형정도진행분석화검험,득도일개정학도비상고적예측모형,해모형부합기차화운량적예측,병재실제예측응용중취득교호효과.
With the feature of rapid growth of Chinses volume freight in recent years,we use the prediction of model GM (1,1) to forecast the volume of freight, and use the method of testing difference to analyze and test the accuracy of the model. It gets a very high accuracy of prediction model type which is fully consistent with the prediction of the volume freight, and achieves good results in practical application of prediction.
