CAJ | 학술논문

利用江苏省1980～2007年农作物生产时间序列数据,基于农作物生产反应模型,实证分析了江苏省小麦、稻谷、棉花、油菜子4种主要农作物种植面积和产量对价格、物质投入费用、自然灾害与政策等因素的反应程度.结果表明,价格对农作物种植面积和产量具有显著的正面效应,物质投入费用、劳动力价格和自然灾害对农业生产的负面作用比较明显,此外,4种农作物之间还存在不同程度的竞争和促进作用.
이용강소성1980～2007년농작물생산시간서렬수거,기우농작물생산반응모형,실증분석료강소성소맥、도곡、면화、유채자4충주요농작물충식면적화산량대개격、물질투입비용、자연재해여정책등인소적반응정도.결과표명,개격대농작물충식면적화산량구유현저적정면효응,물질투입비용、노동력개격화자연재해대농업생산적부면작용비교명현,차외,4충농작물지간환존재불동정도적경쟁화촉진작용.
Based on production response model for crop production,this paper used time serial data in Jiangsu province from 1980 to 2007 and empirically analyzed the influence of production response by price,income,production cost,natural calamity,policy and other factors in four kinds of primary crops,including rice,winter wheat,cotton and rapeseed.Empirical results showed that price and income played a significantly positive role in planting area and yield.Natural calamity negatively affected agricultural production relatively remarkably.Moreover,there were some inter-competition or inter-promotion relationships among the four crops.