中华流行病学杂志
中華流行病學雜誌
중화류행병학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
2009年
11期
1106-1110
,共5页
张勇%高燕%方立群%李亚品%钱全%闫磊%杨华%柏延臣%周蓉%吴浩然%杨红%舒跃龙%曹务春
張勇%高燕%方立群%李亞品%錢全%閆磊%楊華%柏延臣%週蓉%吳浩然%楊紅%舒躍龍%曹務春
장용%고연%방립군%리아품%전전%염뢰%양화%백연신%주용%오호연%양홍%서약룡%조무춘
甲型H1N1流感%预防控制%扩散模式%定量评价
甲型H1N1流感%預防控製%擴散模式%定量評價
갑형H1N1류감%예방공제%확산모식%정량평개
Influenza A (H1N1)%Prevention and control%Spread patterns%Quantitative assessment
目的 探讨取消边境体温筛查或其他预防控制措施,以及入境人员居家隔离环节这三种场景下中国大陆甲型H1N1流感传播模式.方法 根据已有研究资料和数据估计出各传播环节的相关参数,采用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)方法模拟流感的传播过程.结果 边境体温筛查在一定程度上能够抑制疫情在国内的传播速度,使3个月后全国累计病例数降低约21.5%(1718例);疫情的蔓延速度将被延迟约4d.对甲型H1N1患者采取积极防控措施能有效控制疫情的传播和蔓延,使3个月后全国累计病例数比不采取防控措施时降低约93.4%(9万余例);疫情蔓延至全国的时间被延迟约15 d.如果入境者能够自觉采取居家隔离措施,则控制效果将更为明显,若分别有30%、60%和90%的入境者自觉采取居家隔离措施,则3个月后全国累计病例数分别可降低约15%(940例)、34%(2230例)和64%(4180例);且疫情蔓延至全国的时间分别延迟了约4、10、25 d.现有防控措施能够减轻疫情的严重程度,但难以遏制疫情的蔓延.结论 中国现有的甲型H1N1流感预防控制措施效果有效且必要.
目的 探討取消邊境體溫篩查或其他預防控製措施,以及入境人員居傢隔離環節這三種場景下中國大陸甲型H1N1流感傳播模式.方法 根據已有研究資料和數據估計齣各傳播環節的相關參數,採用矇特卡囉(Monte Carlo)方法模擬流感的傳播過程.結果 邊境體溫篩查在一定程度上能夠抑製疫情在國內的傳播速度,使3箇月後全國纍計病例數降低約21.5%(1718例);疫情的蔓延速度將被延遲約4d.對甲型H1N1患者採取積極防控措施能有效控製疫情的傳播和蔓延,使3箇月後全國纍計病例數比不採取防控措施時降低約93.4%(9萬餘例);疫情蔓延至全國的時間被延遲約15 d.如果入境者能夠自覺採取居傢隔離措施,則控製效果將更為明顯,若分彆有30%、60%和90%的入境者自覺採取居傢隔離措施,則3箇月後全國纍計病例數分彆可降低約15%(940例)、34%(2230例)和64%(4180例);且疫情蔓延至全國的時間分彆延遲瞭約4、10、25 d.現有防控措施能夠減輕疫情的嚴重程度,但難以遏製疫情的蔓延.結論 中國現有的甲型H1N1流感預防控製措施效果有效且必要.
목적 탐토취소변경체온사사혹기타예방공제조시,이급입경인원거가격리배절저삼충장경하중국대륙갑형H1N1류감전파모식.방법 근거이유연구자료화수거고계출각전파배절적상관삼수,채용몽특잡라(Monte Carlo)방법모의류감적전파과정.결과 변경체온사사재일정정도상능구억제역정재국내적전파속도,사3개월후전국루계병례수강저약21.5%(1718례);역정적만연속도장피연지약4d.대갑형H1N1환자채취적겁방공조시능유효공제역정적전파화만연,사3개월후전국루계병례수비불채취방공조시시강저약93.4%(9만여례);역정만연지전국적시간피연지약15 d.여과입경자능구자각채취거가격리조시,칙공제효과장경위명현,약분별유30%、60%화90%적입경자자각채취거가격리조시,칙3개월후전국루계병례수분별가강저약15%(940례)、34%(2230례)화64%(4180례);차역정만연지전국적시간분별연지료약4、10、25 d.현유방공조시능구감경역정적엄중정도,단난이알제역정적만연.결론 중국현유적갑형H1N1류감예방공제조시효과유효차필요.
Objective To study the epidemic tendency of emerging influenza A (H1N1) in mainland China, and to explore the different patterns of spread on the disease under the following contexts: (1) To stop the temperature screening program at the border areas of the country; (2)To stop measures of prevention and control on those identified cases and their close contacts; (3) To strengthen programs for the foreign immigrants on 'home quarantine'. Methods Under relevant parameters and information on the transmission link from different reference data, the patterns of influenza spread were simulated by Monte Carlo method. Results The temperature screening on border could inhibit the transmission of influenza A (H1N1) to some extent, so that after 3 months the cumulative number of cases will be reduced by 21.5% (1718 cases) and transmission speed of influenza A (H1N1) in mainland China will be delayed by about 4 days. Furthermore, taking positive measures of prevention and control could efficiently slow down the epidemic, so that after 3 months the cumulative number of cases will be reduced by 93.4%(about 90 thousand cases) and it would be delayed by about 15 days if influenza A (H1N1) spreads to the whole country. In addition, if the immigrants were able to practise quarantine measures consciously by themselves at home the effect of prevention and control against influenza A(H1N1) would be more significant. If 30%, 60% and 90% of immigrants would take quarantine measures home consciously, after 3 months the cumulative number of cases will be reduced by about 15% (about 940 cases), 34% (about 2230 cases) and 64% (about 4180 cases), respectively. Also, influenza A (H1N1) spreads to the whole country will be delayed by about 4 days, 10 days and 25 days, respectively. It is difficult to curb fully the development of the epidemic by taking existing control measures, and influenza A (H1N1) may spread to almost all provinces after about 3 months. Conclusion The effects of existing prevention and control measures were objectively assessed and the results showed the necessity and effectiveness of these measures against the transmission of influenza A (H1N1) , in the mainland of China.
