CAJ | 학술논문

基于本市2005—2010年各区API日资料和污染日逐时资料、逐日气象要素资料、物理量因子，在对全市污染时空分布特征和各影响因素细致分析的基础上，运用典型天气形势和典型要素判定方法，在此基础上，进行气象要素的偏最小二乘回归提炼主要因子，建立污染天气预报思路，运用2011年重污染目的资料进行检验，结果表明：该种三级判定的方法预测污染小概率事件，吻合较好，为空气污染客观预报和高污染预警系统的建立提供依据。
기우본시2005—2010년각구API일자료화오염일축시자료、축일기상요소자료、물리량인자，재대전시오염시공분포특정화각영향인소세치분석적기출상，운용전형천기형세화전형요소판정방법，재차기출상，진행기상요소적편최소이승회귀제련주요인자，건립오염천기예보사로，운용2011년중오염목적자료진행검험，결과표명：해충삼급판정적방법예측오염소개솔사건，문합교호，위공기오염객관예보화고오염예경계통적건립제공의거。
Using API data, daily and hourly data of pollution days, daily meteorological data and physical factors of Shenzhen from 2005 to 2010, the prediction method of air pollution partition was analysed based on the spatial and temporal pollution distributions of Shenzhen and detailed influencing factors by typical elements and weather situation analyse method. Meanwhile, this paper uses partial least squares method and refine important meteorological elements to establish the pollution forecasting ideas. Through the test on data of 2011 heavy pollution days, the results show that this three level determination method has good effect on predicting the oecuranee of small probability pollution events and provides a good foundation for air pollution forecast and the establishment of early warning systems.