CAJ | 학술논문

运用云南省1978年——2007年的时间序列数据,采用协整分析、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法,对云南城市化进程与经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明：云南省经济增长与城市化之间存在长期的动态均衡关系,这表明经济增长和城市化之间呈现出一定的协调性,经济增长对城市化水平具有明显的促进作用;在短期内,城市化水平和人均GDP存在互相牵制机制;经济增长对城市化的作用强于城市化对经济增长的作用。因此,推进城市化进程,需要继续保持经济较高增长,以进一步发挥城市化对经济增长的促进作用。
운용운남성1978년——2007년적시간서렬수거,채용협정분석、오차수정모형、격란걸인과관계검험、맥충향응함수、방차분해등방법,대운남성시화진정여경제증장적관계진행실증연구。결과표명：운남성경제증장여성시화지간존재장기적동태균형관계,저표명경제증장화성시화지간정현출일정적협조성,경제증장대성시화수평구유명현적촉진작용;재단기내,성시화수평화인균GDP존재호상견제궤제;경제증장대성시화적작용강우성시화대경제증장적작용。인차,추진성시화진정,수요계속보지경제교고증장,이진일보발휘성시화대경제증장적촉진작용。
An empirical study has been conducted to analyze the relationship between urbanization and economic growth,by taking the time-series data from 1978 to 2007 of Yunnan province and using co-integration test,error correction model,granger causality,impulse response function and variance decomposition.The findings shows that Yunnan＇s economic growth has a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship with its urbanization,which presents some coordination between its economic growth and its urbanization,and the economic growth plays a significant role in promoting the urbanization.In a short term,there are a mutual containment mechanism between the economic growth and the urbanization.The impact of the economic growth on the urbanization is stronger than that of the urbanization on the economic growth.Therefore,the urbanization advancement needs to continuously maintain a high economic growth and plays the promoting role of the urbanization in the economic growth further.