电工技术学报
電工技術學報
전공기술학보
TRANSACTIONS OF CHINA ELECTROTECHNICAL SOCIETY
2010年
2期
158-162
,共5页
负荷预测%灰色模型%Kalman平滑器%母线负荷预测
負荷預測%灰色模型%Kalman平滑器%母線負荷預測
부하예측%회색모형%Kalman평활기%모선부하예측
Load forecasting%grey model%Kalman smoother%bus load forecasting
提出一种基于灰色模型和Kalman平滑器的多母线短期负荷预测方法。首先利用频域分解消去母线负荷序列的周周期分量,建立序列的灰色模型;利用系统负荷预测方法得到系统负荷预测值。然后基于灰色模型,将各母线负荷的累加序列作为状态,系统负荷的累加序列作为观测,建立线性离散随机系统模型,利用Kalman平滑器计算各母线负荷累加序列的最优估计值,最后经过累减还原并加上周周期分量得到母线负荷的预测值。Kalman平滑器利用高准确率的系统负荷预测结果对母线负荷预测进行调整,降低预测误差。在实际系统中进行了仿真验证,证明了该方法的有效性。
提齣一種基于灰色模型和Kalman平滑器的多母線短期負荷預測方法。首先利用頻域分解消去母線負荷序列的週週期分量,建立序列的灰色模型;利用繫統負荷預測方法得到繫統負荷預測值。然後基于灰色模型,將各母線負荷的纍加序列作為狀態,繫統負荷的纍加序列作為觀測,建立線性離散隨機繫統模型,利用Kalman平滑器計算各母線負荷纍加序列的最優估計值,最後經過纍減還原併加上週週期分量得到母線負荷的預測值。Kalman平滑器利用高準確率的繫統負荷預測結果對母線負荷預測進行調整,降低預測誤差。在實際繫統中進行瞭倣真驗證,證明瞭該方法的有效性。
제출일충기우회색모형화Kalman평활기적다모선단기부하예측방법。수선이용빈역분해소거모선부하서렬적주주기분량,건립서렬적회색모형;이용계통부하예측방법득도계통부하예측치。연후기우회색모형,장각모선부하적루가서렬작위상태,계통부하적루가서렬작위관측,건립선성리산수궤계통모형,이용Kalman평활기계산각모선부하루가서렬적최우고계치,최후경과루감환원병가상주주기분량득도모선부하적예측치。Kalman평활기이용고준학솔적계통부하예측결과대모선부하예측진행조정,강저예측오차。재실제계통중진행료방진험증,증명료해방법적유효성。
A short-term bus load forecasting method based on grey model and Kalman smoother is proposed.The weekly component of the load of each bus is subtracted and the grey model is constructed.The system load is forecasted.Then based on the grey model,a linear discrete random model is formed.The bus load cumulative series are the states and the system load cumulative series is the observation.The Kalman smoother is utilized to compute the optimal estimate of the bus load cumulative series.The forecast of bus load is the sum of the weekly component and the result of successive subtracting of the cumulative series.The Kalman smoother uses the system load forecasting result to adjust bus load forecasts and reduces the errors.The validity of the method is verified by simulation in a practical system.
