CAJ | 학술논문

运用ImPACT等式,以甘南藏族自治州草原牧区为例,对人类活动草原环境压力的影响进行了实证研究.结果表明,1985～2020年,经济每增长1%,会引起草原环境压力相应地发生15.79%的变化,其中人口(P)和人均GDP(A)的增长对草原环境压力产生正效应,而草原资源利用效率(T)的提高和畜产品使用强度(C)的降低有利于抑制环境压力的上升;不同时期人类活动对草原环境的压力不同,且整体呈现出"U"型曲线,并不支持环境库兹涅茨曲线的观点;天然草原恢复与建设项目的实施,在一定时期内缓解了草原环境压力,但要切实实现草原资源的可持续利用,必然要动用当地另一重要资源即社会资源.利用ImPACTS等式测算得到,若考虑社会资源,则经济每增长1%,对草原环境的压力相应发生6.2%的变化,较不动用社会资源时下降了9.6%,社会资源的动用极大地减轻了草原环境压力.
운용ImPACT등식,이감남장족자치주초원목구위례,대인류활동초원배경압력적영향진행료실증연구.결과표명,1985～2020년,경제매증장1%,회인기초원배경압력상응지발생15.79%적변화,기중인구(P)화인균GDP(A)적증장대초원배경압력산생정효응,이초원자원이용효솔(T)적제고화축산품사용강도(C)적강저유리우억제배경압력적상승;불동시기인류활동대초원배경적압력불동,차정체정현출"U"형곡선,병불지지배경고자열자곡선적관점;천연초원회복여건설항목적실시,재일정시기내완해료초원배경압력,단요절실실현초원자원적가지속이용,필연요동용당지령일중요자원즉사회자원.이용ImPACTS등식측산득도,약고필사회자원,칙경제매증장1%,대초원배경적압력상응발생6.2%적변화,교불동용사회자원시하강료9.6%,사회자원적동용겁대지감경료초원배경압력.
Analysis of impact of human activities on environment has become a hot topic in the current time. On the basis of introducing the ImPACT identity combined with a case study of pastoral area in Gannan of Northwest China's Gansu Province during 1985～2020, the paper analyzes the effect of anthropogenic driving forces on environment of grassland including total population, affluence, livestock products intensity and consumption of grassland per unit livestock product. It is found that a 1% change in economic increase results in a 15.79% change, especially the increase of population and GDP have positive impact, while the improvement of utilization efficiency of grassland and decrease of intensity of livestock can check the rapidly-increasing environmental pressure. In the growth of affluence the coefficient of affluence elasticity of impact will increase. So in the empirical study, the overall findings do not support the environment Kuznets curve hypothesis, however, the impact of human activities on environment appears "U" curve wholly. The project of natural grassland recovery and construction was implemented during 2000～2004 in pastoral area in Gannan. At a certain period of time the project played an important role in alleviating the environmental pressure. So another kind of resources, namely social resources should be paid more attention to for the sustainable utilization of grassland. And after calculating the ImPACTS identity, it shows that if we consider social resources, a 1% change in economic increase would result in a 6.2% change in environment pressure. That is to say, the social resources can alleviate the environmental pressure of grassland greatly, which decreases from 15.79% before considering social resources to 6.2% after putting social resources to practice.