CAJ | 학술논문

利用2003-2007年中尺度数值模式MM5及探审资料计算的物理量,选取与强对流天气相关性好的热力、动力、能量参数作为预报因子,通过对各参数的空间分布特征和数值与强对流天气落区进行诊断统计分析,及通过参数的搭配,并在考虑因子季节变化特征的基础上,建立强对流诊断预报方程,从而制作福建省未来0～12小时、0～6小时有否出现强对流天气及落区的潜势预报.并用此法同报了2003-2007年3-9月和检验了2008年3-9月的强对流天气.结果表明3-6月潜势预报技巧比7-9月的更高,区域性预报技巧比非区域性的更高.2008年检验结果是0～6小时的预报技巧比0～12小时的低.此法对冰雹、雷雨大风等强对流天气的临近监测预警有较好的指示意义.
이용2003-2007년중척도수치모식MM5급탐심자료계산적물리량,선취여강대류천기상관성호적열력、동력、능량삼수작위예보인자,통과대각삼수적공간분포특정화수치여강대류천기락구진행진단통계분석,급통과삼수적탑배,병재고필인자계절변화특정적기출상,건립강대류진단예보방정,종이제작복건성미래0～12소시、0～6소시유부출현강대류천기급락구적잠세예보.병용차법동보료2003-2007년3-9월화검험료2008년3-9월적강대류천기.결과표명3-6월잠세예보기교비7-9월적경고,구역성예보기교비비구역성적경고.2008년검험결과시0～6소시적예보기교비0～12소시적저.차법대빙박、뇌우대풍등강대류천기적림근감측예경유교호적지시의의.
The forecasting equations of severe convective weather were built using the physical variables obtained from Model MM5 and radiosonde data during 2003 to 2007,by the ways of making the statistic space distribution with location of severe convection and collocating parameters.By considering the seasonal variation characteristics of the factors,potential forecasts of severe convection and location are made in the future 0-6 h and 0-12 h.The results show that the skill of potential forecast is higher during March to June than July to September,and regional than non-regional.The method is of good instructive sense to forecast severe convective weather of hail,disastrous gust and so on,although some False Alarm Rate events are produced.