CAJ | 학술논문

利用黄河三角洲地区5个重点沿海蝗区1983-2008年东亚飞蝗夏蝗的调查资料和相应的气象资料,分别对飞蝗发生期、发生量与主要气象因子进行相关分析并组建回归预测模型.结果表明,夏蝗出土始期和出土盛期均与上年9月和当年2月的降水量呈显著的负相关关系,但方程系数不同;在发生量预测中,夏蝗发生密度与4月平均气温和2月降水量呈显著负相关,发生面积与3月和上年8月的平均气温呈显著正相关、与上年9月降水量呈显著负相关.利用历史资料对预测模型进行回代检验,模拟值的平均相对准确率达90.2%,可以满足实际需求.
이용황하삼각주지구5개중점연해황구1983-2008년동아비황하황적조사자료화상응적기상자료,분별대비황발생기、발생량여주요기상인자진행상관분석병조건회귀예측모형.결과표명,하황출토시기화출토성기균여상년9월화당년2월적강수량정현저적부상관관계,단방정계수불동;재발생량예측중,하황발생밀도여4월평균기온화2월강수량정현저부상관,발생면적여3월화상년8월적평균기온정현저정상관、여상년9월강수량정현저부상관.이용역사자료대예측모형진행회대검험,모의치적평균상대준학솔체90.2%,가이만족실제수구.
Based on the survey data of summer oriental migratory locust and meteorological data between 1983 to 2008 in the five key coastal regions of the Yellow River Delta, the statistical correlation between the occurrence period, quantity of the summer oriental migratory locust and the main meteorological factors were analyzed. The regressive prediction model was built. The result showed that the obvious negative correlations between the beginning, the peak unearthed period of summer oriental migratory locust and rainfall of September in previous year, rainfall of February in current year had been found, but with deferent coefficients. For the occurred quantity prediction, there were obvious negative correlations between the occurred density of summer oriental migratory locust and average April atmospheric temperature and the February rainfall in current year, and obvious positive correlations between the occurred area of the locust and the average atmospheric temperature of March in current year and of August in previous year, and an obvious negative correlation between occurred area of summer oriental migratory locust and rainfall of September in previous year. An average 90.2% accuracy got by comparing the predictive data gotten by the prediction mode with the investigated occurrence of summer Oriental migratory locust in back review test to previous data. It could meet the actual demand.