CAJ | 학술논문

文章基于动态的一般均衡模型分析框架，利用中国1997--2040年的宏观经济数据和CO2排量数据，试图回答以下两个问题：第一，中国未来三十年的经济增长对CO2污染排量会有怎样的影响？第二，如何制定合理的政策实现中国政府承诺的CO2减排量？研究结论表明，如果实行正确的控污措施，在未来的30年里中国经济增长将不会造成CO2排量大量增加。通过对CO2排放量进行Divisia分解所得的结构效应和技术效应显示，污染排放量的有效控制可以通过重点减排活动、发展清洁燃料产品以及改进其使用技术得以实现。
문장기우동태적일반균형모형분석광가，이용중국1997--2040년적굉관경제수거화CO2배량수거，시도회답이하량개문제：제일，중국미래삼십년적경제증장대CO2오염배량회유즘양적영향？제이，여하제정합리적정책실현중국정부승낙적CO2감배량？연구결론표명，여과실행정학적공오조시，재미래적30년리중국경제증장장불회조성CO2배량대량증가。통과대CO2배방량진행Divisia분해소득적결구효응화기술효응현시，오염배방량적유효공제가이통과중점감배활동、발전청길연료산품이급개진기사용기술득이실현。
This paper uses a dynamic CGE model, calibrated with detailed 1997 -2040 data, to assess two important questions. Firstly, what can we reasonably expect Chinese emissions trends to look like over the next three decades？ Secondly, what would be the appropriate policy interventions to arrive at the level of targeted CO2 emission that the Chinese Government promised to the international society？ Our results indicate that, with further effective emission control measures, China＇s economic growth over the next thirty years （2010 - 2040 ） will not lead to significant CO2 emission increasing. Scale effect and technical effect of Divisia index decomposition results show that in CO2 emission indicate that efficient pollution mitigation can be realized by focused abatement activities, cleaner production, advances in cleaner fuel products as well as their use technologies.