CAJ | 학술논문

宝兴县境内现有的164只大熊猫可被视为一异质种群,分为亚种群A(东河:115只)、亚种群B(西河以西:40只)及亚种群C(三岔河以下:9只).应用漩涡模型(VORTEX 8.42)对影响该异质种群未来动态的因子进行了初步分析.结果表明:近亲繁殖对该异质种群和各亚种群的影响较为明显,随着近亲繁殖程度的加深,种群衰退的速度也越快;种群的未来发展对环境容纳量的大小变化具有高度的敏感性:环境容纳量大幅度减少时,对种群的负面影响非常严重;模拟的两种灾害因子(竹子开花和森林大火)对该种群均产生一定程度的影响,同一灾害因子,单次影响越大,种群下降越快,而发生频率较高、单次影响较小的灾害因子(如森林火灾)较发生频率低、单次影响大的灾害因子(如竹子开花)对种群的动态影响更大.
보흥현경내현유적164지대웅묘가피시위일이질충군,분위아충군A(동하:115지)、아충군B(서하이서:40지)급아충군C(삼차하이하:9지).응용선와모형(VORTEX 8.42)대영향해이질충군미래동태적인자진행료초보분석.결과 표명:근친번식대해이질충군화각아충군적영향교위명현,수착근친번식정도적가심,충군쇠퇴적속도야월쾌;충군적미래발전대배경용납량적대소변화구유고도적민감성:배경용납량대폭도감소시,대충군적부면영향비상엄중;모의적량충재해인자(죽자개화화삼림대화)대해충군균산생일정정도적영향,동일재해인자,단차영향월대,충군하강월쾌,이발생빈솔교고、단차영향교소적재해인자(여삼림화재)교발생빈솔저、단차영향대적재해인자(여죽자개화)대충군적동태영향경대.
As a metapopulation (164 individuals), the population of the giant panda in Baoxing County is comprised of subpopulations A (the east river: 115 individuals), B (the west of the west river: 40 individuals), and C (san cha river: 9 individuals). The future dynamics of the metapopulation was predicted with different parameters by means of VORTEX 8.42. The predictions showed that the size of this metapopulation and subpopulations A, B and C would be conspicuously impacted by the inbreeding rate. Moreover, population decline would be speeded up as the degree of inbreeding increased. The future dynamics of the population would be sensitive to variations in environmental capacity: the effect would be awfully serious when if capacity was violently reduced. Population sizes would also be impacted to different degrees by two modeling catastrophe factors, i.e., bamboo blossoming and fire disaster. The more intensive the single catastrophic factor would result a sharper decline of population sizes. Meanwhile, frequent single catastrophic factors (e.g. forest fire disaster) with low impact effects would affect population sizes more seriously than those (e.g. bamboo blossoming) with low frequency and high impacts.