CAJ | 학술논문

针对适合配电系统可靠性评估的贝叶斯网络模型还不够完善,研究了贝叶斯网络模犁的组成,建立了"联合"关系模型和"因果"关系模型;针对贝叶斯网络精确推理难以计算大规模配电系统的可靠性指标,将贝叶斯网络和时序模拟技术相结合,提出了一种时序模拟推理算法.该算法能产生元件的状态与随机时间段,实时进行系统状态的推理与时间、停电用户次数和停电量的累计,利用这些累计量不但可以计算系统的可靠性指标,还可进行诊断推理和因果推理,从而既能实现对系统的总体评价,又能找出钳制系统的薄弱环节.通过与配电系统可靠性测试系统数据及贝叶斯网络精确推理数据相比较,验证了该算法的合理性和有效性.
침대괄합배전계통가고성평고적패협사망락모형환불구완선,연구료패협사망락모리적조성,건립료"연합"관계모형화"인과"관계모형;침대패협사망락정학추리난이계산대규모배전계통적가고성지표,장패협사망락화시서모의기술상결합,제출료일충시서모의추리산법.해산법능산생원건적상태여수궤시간단,실시진행계통상태적추리여시간、정전용호차수화정전량적루계,이용저사루계량불단가이계산계통적가고성지표,환가진행진단추리화인과추리,종이기능실현대계통적총체평개,우능조출겸제계통적박약배절.통과여배전계통가고성측시계통수거급패협사망락정학추리수거상비교,험증료해산법적합이성화유효성.
As the Bayesian network model suitable for distribution system reliability evaluation is inadequate, the compositions of Bayesian network model are researched, and "unite" relation models and "cause-effect" relation models are set up. As the accurate inference of Bayesian network to large-scale distribution systems reliability indices is difficult to calculate, a time sequence simulation inference algorithm based on Bayesian network and time sequence simulation technique is put forward. This algorithm can generate state of elements and random time period, inference the system states in real-time, aggregate the amount of time, consumer power cut frequency and amount. Using the cumulative amount may not only calculate the reliability indices of the system, but also carry out diagnostic reasoning and causal reasoning, thus can accomplish collectivity evaluation of the system and identify weak taches of strangulation system.By comparing with the result of the simulation inference algorithm and accurate inference algorithm, the simulation inference algorithm is reasonable and effective.