CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于动态CGE模型构建了一个能源-经济-环境模型,对2020年的CO2减排的潜力和政策选择进行了模拟.结果显示,碳税和投资调整是减缓CO2排放增长的有效政策手段,但它们对GDP会产生负面影响.加快技术进步可以同时促进减排和经济增长.在高技术进步+中碳税,以及低技术进步+中碳税+中投资调整的情景下,中国2020年的CO2排放量将达到92.7-95.5亿t,CO2排放强度将为1.38-1.43t万元-1.根据中国政府提出的2020年的减排目标,中国CO2排放强度需要由2005年的2.41t万元-1降到2020年的1.45t万元-1(2007年不变价表示).但要实现这40%的减排目标并非易事,因为在正常的技术进步条件下再提高能源效率需要更多的投资来进行设备更新和技术改造.另外,未来的能源供给约束对CO2减排也会产生深刻的影响.未来中国应该大力发展低碳技术,国际社会应该支持中国发展低碳技术.
본문기우동태CGE모형구건료일개능원-경제-배경모형,대2020년적CO2감배적잠력화정책선택진행료모의.결과현시,탄세화투자조정시감완CO2배방증장적유효정책수단,단타문대GDP회산생부면영향.가쾌기술진보가이동시촉진감배화경제증장.재고기술진보+중탄세,이급저기술진보+중탄세+중투자조정적정경하,중국2020년적CO2배방량장체도92.7-95.5억t,CO2배방강도장위1.38-1.43t만원-1.근거중국정부제출적2020년적감배목표,중국CO2배방강도수요유2005년적2.41t만원-1강도2020년적1.45t만원-1(2007년불변개표시).단요실현저40%적감배목표병비역사,인위재정상적기술진보조건하재제고능원효솔수요경다적투자래진행설비경신화기술개조.령외,미래적능원공급약속대CO2감배야회산생심각적영향.미래중국응해대력발전저탄기술,국제사회응해지지중국발전저탄기술.
This paper presents an energy-economic-environment model based on the dynamic CGE (Computable General Equilibrium)model approach.A policy simulation was conducted to determine the potential and policy choices for China in order to reduce CO2 emissions towards 2020.The results show that carbon tax and investment adjustments are effective measures to alleviate CO2 emission increases,but can lead to negative impacts on GDP.Technological improvements can have positive impacts on GDP in regard to CO2 abatement.Under high technological improvement with a mid-level carbon tax scenario,and low technological improvement with mid-level carbon tax and mid-level investment adjustment scenario,China's CO2 emissions in 2020 will reach 9.27-9.55 billion tons and CO2 emissions intensity will decline by0.138-0.143 ton(103 Yuan RMB)-1.According to the mitigation target proclaimed by Chinese government,China should reduce CO2 emissions intensity from 0.241 to 0.145 t(103 Yuan RMB)-1 from 2005 to 2020(in constant 2007 RMB).However,it is not easy to realize a 40% mitigation target because increasing energy efficiency at a faster rate than the normal rate of technological improvement means greater costs for investment in equipment renewal and depreciation before 2020.Moreover,in future,energy supply constraints may have positive effects on the mitigation of CO2 emissions.China needs to devote major efforts to developing low carbon technologies,in addition,international community should provide and increase support to China in this area.