中华预防医学杂志
中華預防醫學雜誌
중화예방의학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF
2012年
7期
581-586
,共6页
陈万青%郑荣寿%曾红梅%张思维%李霓%邹小农%赫捷
陳萬青%鄭榮壽%曾紅梅%張思維%李霓%鄒小農%赫捷
진만청%정영수%증홍매%장사유%리예%추소농%혁첩
肿瘤%登记%发病率%贝叶斯定理
腫瘤%登記%髮病率%貝葉斯定理
종류%등기%발병솔%패협사정리
Neoplasms%Registry%Incidence%Bayes theorem
目的 利用1998-2007年中国肿瘤发病数据对肿瘤发病趋势进行分析,并对2008-2015年肿瘤发病情况进行预测.方法 从全国肿瘤登记中心数据库中提取1998-2007年中国肿瘤发病数据,包括40个登记处,共登记肿瘤发病1109 594例,覆盖人群446 734 668人年.计算地区别、性别肿瘤发病率,采用世界人口年龄结构计算标化发病率.用JoinPoint软件对10年发病率的变化趋势进行分析,计算年度变化率(APC值).利用年龄-时期-队列的贝叶斯模型对城乡和性别发病数据进行拟合,预测2008-2015年中国肿瘤发病情况.结果 1998-2007年,我国城市男性肿瘤发病率为277.61/10万(472 307/170 131 309),标化发病率为202.05/10万,女性发病率为236.35/10万(389 586/164 830 893),标化发病率为159.15/10万；农村男性发病率为272.23/10万( 153 478/56 377 236),标化发病率为244.34/10万,女性发病率为170.09/10万(94 223/55 395 230),标化发病率为137.90/10万.10年间,城市男性发病率由1998年的247.00/10万(27 758/11 237 967)上升至2007年的305.76/10万(68 953/22 551 353),城市女性由207.37/10万(22 476/10 838 355)上升至263.20/10万(58 055/22 057 787)；农村男性由1998年的232.33/10万(10 045/4 323 628)上升至2007年的303.65/10万(23 313/7 677 484),农村女性由139.03/10万(5836/4 197 806)上升至197.40/10万(14 850/7 522 690).调整人口年龄结构后,城市男性APC(95％CI)值为0.5％(-0.2％ ～1.3％),差异无统计学意义.而城市女性、农村男性和农村女性APC(95％CI)值分别为1.7％(1.3％ ～2.0％)、1.8％(0.9％ ～2.6％)、2.8％(1.8％ ～3.7％),呈升高趋势.年龄-时期-队列贝叶斯模型预测,2015年我国恶性肿瘤发病率城市男性为309.13/10万(年新发肿瘤114.0万例),城市女性为303.79/10万(年新发肿瘤104.6万例),农村男性为288.66/10万(年新发肿瘤101.9万例),农村女性为222.59/10万(年新发肿瘤73.4万例).结论 我国肿瘤发病率呈逐年升高趋势,农村上升趋势大于城市,女性大于男性,预计肿瘤患者将逐年增多,亟须采取有效防治措施.
目的 利用1998-2007年中國腫瘤髮病數據對腫瘤髮病趨勢進行分析,併對2008-2015年腫瘤髮病情況進行預測.方法 從全國腫瘤登記中心數據庫中提取1998-2007年中國腫瘤髮病數據,包括40箇登記處,共登記腫瘤髮病1109 594例,覆蓋人群446 734 668人年.計算地區彆、性彆腫瘤髮病率,採用世界人口年齡結構計算標化髮病率.用JoinPoint軟件對10年髮病率的變化趨勢進行分析,計算年度變化率(APC值).利用年齡-時期-隊列的貝葉斯模型對城鄉和性彆髮病數據進行擬閤,預測2008-2015年中國腫瘤髮病情況.結果 1998-2007年,我國城市男性腫瘤髮病率為277.61/10萬(472 307/170 131 309),標化髮病率為202.05/10萬,女性髮病率為236.35/10萬(389 586/164 830 893),標化髮病率為159.15/10萬；農村男性髮病率為272.23/10萬( 153 478/56 377 236),標化髮病率為244.34/10萬,女性髮病率為170.09/10萬(94 223/55 395 230),標化髮病率為137.90/10萬.10年間,城市男性髮病率由1998年的247.00/10萬(27 758/11 237 967)上升至2007年的305.76/10萬(68 953/22 551 353),城市女性由207.37/10萬(22 476/10 838 355)上升至263.20/10萬(58 055/22 057 787)；農村男性由1998年的232.33/10萬(10 045/4 323 628)上升至2007年的303.65/10萬(23 313/7 677 484),農村女性由139.03/10萬(5836/4 197 806)上升至197.40/10萬(14 850/7 522 690).調整人口年齡結構後,城市男性APC(95％CI)值為0.5％(-0.2％ ～1.3％),差異無統計學意義.而城市女性、農村男性和農村女性APC(95％CI)值分彆為1.7％(1.3％ ～2.0％)、1.8％(0.9％ ～2.6％)、2.8％(1.8％ ～3.7％),呈升高趨勢.年齡-時期-隊列貝葉斯模型預測,2015年我國噁性腫瘤髮病率城市男性為309.13/10萬(年新髮腫瘤114.0萬例),城市女性為303.79/10萬(年新髮腫瘤104.6萬例),農村男性為288.66/10萬(年新髮腫瘤101.9萬例),農村女性為222.59/10萬(年新髮腫瘤73.4萬例).結論 我國腫瘤髮病率呈逐年升高趨勢,農村上升趨勢大于城市,女性大于男性,預計腫瘤患者將逐年增多,亟鬚採取有效防治措施.
목적 이용1998-2007년중국종류발병수거대종류발병추세진행분석,병대2008-2015년종류발병정황진행예측.방법 종전국종류등기중심수거고중제취1998-2007년중국종류발병수거,포괄40개등기처,공등기종류발병1109 594례,복개인군446 734 668인년.계산지구별、성별종류발병솔,채용세계인구년령결구계산표화발병솔.용JoinPoint연건대10년발병솔적변화추세진행분석,계산년도변화솔(APC치).이용년령-시기-대렬적패협사모형대성향화성별발병수거진행의합,예측2008-2015년중국종류발병정황.결과 1998-2007년,아국성시남성종류발병솔위277.61/10만(472 307/170 131 309),표화발병솔위202.05/10만,녀성발병솔위236.35/10만(389 586/164 830 893),표화발병솔위159.15/10만；농촌남성발병솔위272.23/10만( 153 478/56 377 236),표화발병솔위244.34/10만,녀성발병솔위170.09/10만(94 223/55 395 230),표화발병솔위137.90/10만.10년간,성시남성발병솔유1998년적247.00/10만(27 758/11 237 967)상승지2007년적305.76/10만(68 953/22 551 353),성시녀성유207.37/10만(22 476/10 838 355)상승지263.20/10만(58 055/22 057 787)；농촌남성유1998년적232.33/10만(10 045/4 323 628)상승지2007년적303.65/10만(23 313/7 677 484),농촌녀성유139.03/10만(5836/4 197 806)상승지197.40/10만(14 850/7 522 690).조정인구년령결구후,성시남성APC(95％CI)치위0.5％(-0.2％ ～1.3％),차이무통계학의의.이성시녀성、농촌남성화농촌녀성APC(95％CI)치분별위1.7％(1.3％ ～2.0％)、1.8％(0.9％ ～2.6％)、2.8％(1.8％ ～3.7％),정승고추세.년령-시기-대렬패협사모형예측,2015년아국악성종류발병솔성시남성위309.13/10만(년신발종류114.0만례),성시녀성위303.79/10만(년신발종류104.6만례),농촌남성위288.66/10만(년신발종류101.9만례),농촌녀성위222.59/10만(년신발종류73.4만례).결론 아국종류발병솔정축년승고추세,농촌상승추세대우성시,녀성대우남성,예계종류환자장축년증다,극수채취유효방치조시.
Objective Based on the national cancer incidence database from 1998 to 2007,to analyze the cancer incidence trend and predict the cancer burden between 2008 and 2015.Methods We picked up the cancer incidence data of 40 cancer registry sites from National Central Cancer Registry Database between 1998 and 2007.In total,1 109 594 cancer cases were registered,covering 446 734 668person-year.The separate incidence by district and gender were calculated,and the standardized incidence rate was calculated by world's population age structure.The incidence trend between the 10 years was analyzed by JoinPoint software,as well as the age-percentage-changes (APC).Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was applied to fit the cancer incidence data stratified by age,district and gender.The cancer incidence between 2008 and 2015 was then predicted.Results During the period of 1998 - 2007,in urban areas,the male cancer incidence rate was 277.61/100 000 (472 307/170 131 309 ),with the age standardized rate (ASR) at 202.05/100 000; while the female cancer incidence rate was 236.35/100 000 (389 586/164 830 893),with the ASR at 159.15/100 000; in rural areas,the male and female cancer incidence rates were separately 272.23/100 000 ( 153 478/56 377 236) and 170.09/100 000 (94 223/55 395 230),with the corresponding ASR at 244.34/100 000 and 137.90/100 000.Crude incidence rate in urban men increased from 247.00/100 000 (27 758/11 237 967 ) in 1998 to 305.76/100 000 (68 953/22 551 353 ) in 2007 ; while it increased from 207.37/100 000 ( 22 476/10 838 355 ) to 263.20/100 000 ( 58 055/22 057 787) among urban women.The crude incidence rate in rural men increased from 232.33/100 000(10 045/4 323 628 ) to 303.65/100 000 (23 313/7 677 484 ) and it increased from 139.03/100 000(5836/4 197 806) to 197.40/100 000 ( 14 850/7 522 690) among rural women.After age adjustment,the urban male APC value ( 95％ CI) was 0.5％ ( - 0.2％ ～ 1.3％ ),showed no significantly statistical difference.However,the urban female APC value (95％ CI),rural male APC value (95％ CI) and rural female APC value (95％CI) were separately 1.7％ ( 1.3％ ～2.0％ ),1.8％ (0.9％ ～2.6％ ) and 2.8％(1.8％ ～3.7％ ),all showed an obvious uptrend.The outcome of Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian model predicted that by year 2015,the incidence cancer rate in urban areas will reach 309.13/100 000 ( 1.140million new cases) among males and 303.79/100 000 ( 1.046 million new cases) among females; while in rural areas the rate will reach 288.66/100 000 (1.019 million new cases ) among males and 222.59/100 000 (0.734 million new cases ) among females.Conclusion The cancer incidence has increased annually; the uptrend in rural areas was more obvious than it in urban areas; the uptrend in females was more obvious than it in males.It is predicted that the annual incidence will continue to increase in the next years,and effective control programs should be carried out immediately.
