CAJ | 학술논문

短期负荷预测是电力系统调度运营部门一项重要的基础工作，预测精度的高低直接影响到电网运行的安全性、经济性以及电能质量。特别是随着我国电力市场的不断完善和发展，短期负荷预测发挥的作用日趋重要。本文首先对影响电力系统负荷预测精度的因素进行了分析和总结，然后对目前负荷预测方法中的智能预测方法和新方法进行了阐述和探讨，最后提出了提高负荷预测精度的几项措施，并对其未来发展方向进行了展望。
단기부하예측시전력계통조도운영부문일항중요적기출공작，예측정도적고저직접영향도전망운행적안전성、경제성이급전능질량。특별시수착아국전력시장적불단완선화발전，단기부하예측발휘적작용일추중요。본문수선대영향전력계통부하예측정도적인소진행료분석화총결，연후대목전부하예측방법중적지능예측방법화신방법진행료천술화탐토，최후제출료제고부하예측정도적궤항조시，병대기미래발전방향진행료전망。
Short-term load forecasting is an important foundation work for the scheduling operation department of power system.The forecasting accuracy directly affects the operation of the safety, economy and power quality. Especially along with the power market＇s developing and perfecting in China, the function of the short-term load forecasting is becoming more and more important. This paper first analyzes and summarizes the accurate factors of forecasting, and then introduces some intelligent forecasting methods and new methods, finally puts forward some measures about improving load forecasting accuracy and development direction in the future.