CAJ | 학술논문

采用中国南方湖南、湖北、贵州、广西、江西和安徽6省近50 a 1月份降水和气温资料,运用正交函数分解法和SYM8小波分析了它们的时空分布特征,并对极端低温的区域均值进行了广义极值模型拟合,同时研究了降水与气温的相关性.结果表明,该地区1月份降水量主要有全区域分布型和南北分布型,极端低温主要有全区域分布型、南北分布型和东西分布型.1月份降水量的全区域总和以及南北部差值都有先增后减的趋势.全区域的极端低温缓慢增长,南北部的差值先减后增,东西部的差值在1975年以前递增,随后几乎趋于稳定.6省1月份极端低温区域均值服从Weibull分布,在95%置信水平下,预测50 a一遇和100 a一遇的极小值达-6.78 ℃和-7.41 ℃.1月份降水量与极端低温的相关不显著,与平均气温在局部地区为负相关.
채용중국남방호남、호북、귀주、엄서、강서화안휘6성근50 a 1월빈강수화기온자료,운용정교함수분해법화SYM8소파분석료타문적시공분포특정,병대겁단저온적구역균치진행료엄의겁치모형의합,동시연구료강수여기온적상관성.결과표명,해지구1월빈강수량주요유전구역분포형화남북분포형,겁단저온주요유전구역분포형、남북분포형화동서분포형.1월빈강수량적전구역총화이급남북부차치도유선증후감적추세.전구역적겁단저온완만증장,남북부적차치선감후증,동서부적차치재1975년이전체증,수후궤호추우은정.6성1월빈겁단저온구역균치복종Weibull분포,재95%치신수평하,예측50 a일우화100 a일우적겁소치체-6.78 ℃화-7.41 ℃.1월빈강수량여겁단저온적상관불현저,여평균기온재국부지구위부상관.
Based on the January precipitation and temperature data of Hunan,Hubei,Guizhou,Guangxi,Jiangxi and Anhui in 1959-2008,their spatiotemporal characteristics are investigated by the EOF method and the SYM8 wavelet analysis,the regional-averages of extreme minimum temperature are simulated with a generalized extreme value distribution model(GEV),and the correlation between January precipitation and temperature is also studied.Spatial distributions of January precipitation can be mainly decomposed into the entire domain EOF mode and the north-south EOF mode,while the distributions of extreme minimum temperature can be decomposed to the entire domain EOF mode,the north-south EOF mode and the west-east EOF mode.The entire domain value of January precipitation and the north-south difference value both increased at first and then decreased.Extreme minimum temperature showed a slow increasing trend,the north-south difference decreased first and then increased,and the west-east difference successively increased before 1975,then approached a stable value.Besides,a GEV model has been established using the January extreme minimum temperatures,resulting in -6.78 ℃ (-7.41 ℃) as the extreme minimum temperature with a return period of 50-yrs (100-yrs) at the 95% confidence level,respectively.Correlation between January precipitation and extreme minimum temperature scarcely exists in a statistical sense,while a negative correlation between January precipitation and average temperature does exist in some regions.