CAJ | 학술논문

针对我国近海水质污染呈现的复杂非线性特征,通过对混沌理论中的相空间重构方法进行研究,提出了一种新的完全基于环境监测数据的近海水质分析方法.以天津市近岸海域为例,首先,根据相空间重构理论,对近海各监测点的1维COD时间序列进行多维相空间重构,求得最佳嵌入维数m_(min)和吸引子关联维数D;然后,采用Wolf方法计算最佳嵌入维数m_(min)下重构相空间的最大Lyapunov指数λ_1.计算结果显示各个监测点的关联维数D均在3.3左右,最大Lyapunov指数λ_1均大于0,表明近海水质COD时间序列具有明显的混沌特征,近海水质系统是一个多维系统,貌似随机无规律的近海水质系统具有内在的、固有的规律.应用表明,该方法实用性强,为进一步采用混沌理论对近海水质进行预测提供了理论依据,非常有利于近海水环境的管理.
침대아국근해수질오염정현적복잡비선성특정,통과대혼돈이론중적상공간중구방법진행연구,제출료일충신적완전기우배경감측수거적근해수질분석방법.이천진시근안해역위례,수선,근거상공간중구이론,대근해각감측점적1유COD시간서렬진행다유상공간중구,구득최가감입유수m_(min)화흡인자관련유수D;연후,채용Wolf방법계산최가감입유수m_(min)하중구상공간적최대Lyapunov지수λ_1.계산결과현시각개감측점적관련유수D균재3.3좌우,최대Lyapunov지수λ_1균대우0,표명근해수질COD시간서렬구유명현적혼돈특정,근해수질계통시일개다유계통,모사수궤무규률적근해수질계통구유내재적、고유적규률.응용표명,해방법실용성강,위진일보채용혼돈이론대근해수질진행예측제공료이론의거,비상유리우근해수배경적관리.
Against the nonlinear pollution characteristics of Chinese coast,a new method for analyzing the characteristics of coastal water pollution was proposed based on the chaos theory.Taking the Tianjin coast as an example,firstly,the phase space reconstruction method was used to reconstruct the multi-dimension phase space for COD time series of each monitoring point.And the best embedded space dimension m_(min) and attractor's association dimension D were computed.Secondly,the Wolf method was used to compute the biggest Lyapunov exponent m_(min).The results showed that all the association dimensions λ_1 were around 3.3,and the biggest Lyapunov exponents λ_1>0.It proved that the coastal water quality pollution presented the chaotic characteristics.The coastal water quality system is a multi-dimension system,and has inherent orderliness.The conclusion summarized in this paper could provide the theory basis for the coastal water quality forecasting which based on the chaos theory.It can be found from the application that the method proposed in this paper is practical and suitable for the environmental management in the coastal water.