CAJ | 학술논문

针对传统相对海平面变化分析方法均将理论海平面变化和地面沉降进行的叠加分析,本文讨论和分析了近20年来全球理论海平面上升速率加快背景下的区域海平面变化速率,利用灰色线性回归组合模型预测上海地区海平面变化趋势。考虑了上海地面沉降发展的新特点,以及长江流域来沙显著减少和河口大型工程建设对上海地区相对海平面变化的影响。在流域来沙量显著减少但来水量变化不大情况下,流域大坝的坝下冲刷使得河槽刷深,河口水位降低,同时长江口深水航道整治工程和促淤围垦工程束狭入海口,使得潮位站水位发生变化,两者的综合效应是目前研究长江口相对海平面变化时必须考虑的重要因素。
침대전통상대해평면변화분석방법균장이론해평면변화화지면침강진행적첩가분석,본문토론화분석료근20년래전구이론해평면상승속솔가쾌배경하적구역해평면변화속솔,이용회색선성회귀조합모형예측상해지구해평면변화추세。고필료상해지면침강발전적신특점,이급장강류역래사현저감소화하구대형공정건설대상해지구상대해평면변화적영향。재류역래사량현저감소단래수량변화불대정황하,류역대패적패하충쇄사득하조쇄심,하구수위강저,동시장강구심수항도정치공정화촉어위은공정속협입해구,사득조위참수위발생변화,량자적종합효응시목전연구장강구상대해평면변화시필수고필적중요인소。
Relative sea level change reported before has been acquired by the global theoretical sea level rise and local land subsidence.New components consist of the relative sea level change by the strong human interventions in the watershed and estuary of Yangtze River for the recent 20 years in Shanghai are concerned in the present paper.These new components are the regional sea level change with an increasing global theoretical sea-level rise,a decreasing land subsidence controlled by the densely high building and subway,and the water level lowering due to the erosion of channel riverbed with the sediment discharge decrease in the Yangtze River estuary caused by large-scale hydraulic engineering as Three-Gauge Dam in the watershed,and then water level change at gauge stations with the width narrowing of estuarine channels by the engineering as land reclamation and deep navigation channel regulation,fresh water reservoir.Nevertheless,impact of these new parameters should be estimated and predicted and then the combined regional relative sea level change could be predicted by a linear regression analysis integrated with grey system proposed by the authors in the Yangtze River estuary in the 21st century.