CAJ | 학술논문

利用上海台风研究所及国家气象中心整编的中国台风灾情资料,分析了中国致灾台风造成的人员伤亡、房屋倒损、农田受淹及直接经济损失等灾情特征.引入了定基物价指数,改进了台风灾害指数(ATDI指数)的计算方法,基于1980-2004年间所有致灾台风的灾害指数的聚类分析,将致灾台风的灾害分为:轻灾(或小灾)、中灾、大灾(或中偏重灾)和重灾4个等级,并据此对1980-2004年间中国致灾台风的灾情进行了客观评估.结果表明:平均每年约有7.2个台风对中国造成明显灾情,最多的年份多达11个、最少年份也有4个.中国致灾台风的频数逐年减少,但造成的灾情却逐年趋重,因台风而伤亡的总人数逐年上升(死亡人数下降)、倒损房屋和受淹的农田面积以及造成的直接经济损失均逐年递增,倒损房屋、受淹的农田面积、直接经济损失的年平均增长率分别为1.33×10~4间/年、2.28×10~4 hm~2/年和14.56亿元/年.1980-2004年间,单个致灾台风而言,倒损房屋、受淹的农田面积、直接经济损失的平均增长率分别为581.4间/个、880.0 hm~2/个和0.33亿元/个.从台风灾害指数看,1990年代中期,中国的台风灾害较为严重,其中1996年最重,而1998年则是1980-2004年间台风灾害最轻的年份.
이용상해태풍연구소급국가기상중심정편적중국태풍재정자료,분석료중국치재태풍조성적인원상망、방옥도손、농전수엄급직접경제손실등재정특정.인입료정기물개지수,개진료태풍재해지수(ATDI지수)적계산방법,기우1980-2004년간소유치재태풍적재해지수적취류분석,장치재태풍적재해분위:경재(혹소재)、중재、대재(혹중편중재)화중재4개등급,병거차대1980-2004년간중국치재태풍적재정진행료객관평고.결과표명:평균매년약유7.2개태풍대중국조성명현재정,최다적년빈다체11개、최소년빈야유4개.중국치재태풍적빈수축년감소,단조성적재정각축년추중,인태풍이상망적총인수축년상승(사망인수하강)、도손방옥화수엄적농전면적이급조성적직접경제손실균축년체증,도손방옥、수엄적농전면적、직접경제손실적년평균증장솔분별위1.33×10~4간/년、2.28×10~4 hm~2/년화14.56억원/년.1980-2004년간,단개치재태풍이언,도손방옥、수엄적농전면적、직접경제손실적평균증장솔분별위581.4간/개、880.0 hm~2/개화0.33억원/개.종태풍재해지수간,1990년대중기,중국적태풍재해교위엄중,기중1996년최중,이1998년칙시1980-2004년간태풍재해최경적년빈.
The characters of casualty, damaged or collapsed house, inundated farmland area, and direct economic loss caused by tropi-cal cyclones (TC) in China during 1980- 2004 are analyzed based on the typhoon disaster loss data compiled by Shanghai Typhoon Institute and National Meteorological Center. Considering direct economic loss and the influence of society development, an Advanced Typhoon Disaster Index (ATDI) for objective assessment of disaster degrees is developed. Based on the ATDIs of all tropical cy-clones, the disasters are divided into four categories: gentle, moderate, heavy, and severe. It is found that on average 7.2 TCs caused remarkable damages in China each year. The annual damage increases with increasing casualty (the death toll dropped dramati-cally), damaged or collapsed house, inundated farmland, and direct economic loss, although the number of TCs causing disasters has dropped in China during 1980 - 2004. The average yearly growth rates of the damaged or collapsed house, inundated farmland, and direct economic loss are 1.33 × 10~3 rooms, 2.28 × 10~4 hm~2, and 1.46 billion RMB, respectively. As far as single TC is concerned, those average growth rates are 581.4 rooms per TC, 880.0 hm~2 per TC and 33 million RMB per TC, respectively. Based on the AT-DI, the damage caused by TCs more severe in the mid 1990's with the severest (gentlest) damage occurring in 1996 (1998) from 1980 to 2004.