CAJ | 학술논문

目的为更加直观了解核与辐射恐怖事件在城市地区的辐射影响范围,开发可将预测结果直接显示在城市电子地图上的系统软件.方法针对放射性物质散布、脏弹袭击、辐射设施爆炸或纵火袭击3种场景,采用高斯扩散模型,预测污染物在大气中的扩散与沉降.结合相应的剂量转换因子,估算"代表人"的内、外照射剂量.集成计算系统与Mapinfo(R)地理信息系统,将相应的预测结果直观显示于城市电子地图.结果该软件可实现预测结果在城市电子地图上的直接显示.其预测结果与国外类似软件Hotspot(R)的计算结果比较,对于主要污染区域的预测范围基本一致,事故下风向区域等剂量曲线位置偏差小于0.2 km.结论研制出的软件系统能对城市核与辐射恐怖事件的辐射影响进行早期预测,为城市的应急响应提供参考,具有一定的实用价值.
목적 위경가직관료해핵여복사공포사건재성시지구적복사영향범위,개발가장예측결과직접현시재성시전자지도상적계통연건.방법 침대방사성물질산포、장탄습격、복사설시폭작혹종화습격3충장경,채용고사확산모형,예측오염물재대기중적확산여침강.결합상응적제량전환인자,고산"대표인"적내、외조사제량.집성계산계통여Mapinfo(R)지리신식계통,장상응적예측결과직관현시우성시전자지도.결과 해연건가실현예측결과재성시전자지도상적직접현시.기예측결과여국외유사연건Hotspot(R)적계산결과비교,대우주요오염구역적예측범위기본일치,사고하풍향구역등제량곡선위치편차소우0.2 km.결론 연제출적연건계통능대성시핵여복사공포사건적복사영향진행조기예측,위성시적응급향응제공삼고,구유일정적실용개치.
Objective To develop a new software system that cau directly display the predicted results on an electronic map,in order to get a directly perceived understanding of the affected areas of nuclear and radiological terrorism events in city areas.Methods Three scenarios of events including spreading radioactive materials, dirty bomb attack,and explosion or arson attacks on the radiation facilities were assumed.Gaussian diffusion model was employed to predict the spread and deposition of radioactive pollutants,and both the internal and external doses were estimated for the representative person by using the corresponding dose conversion factors.Through integration of the computing system and Mapinfo geographic information system(GIS),the predicted results were visually displayed on the electronic maps of a city.Results The new software system could visually display the predicted results on the electronic map of a city, and the predicted results were consistent with those calculated by the similar software Hotspot(R)The deviation between this system and Hotspot was less than 0.2 km for predicted isoplethic curves of dose rate downwind.Conclusions The newly developed software system is of the practical value in predicting the effects of nuclear and radiological terrorism events in city areas.