时代报告(下半月)
時代報告(下半月)
시대보고(하반월)
TIME REPORT
2012年
2期
159-161
,共3页
monetary policy%GDP%co-integration test%Granger causality test
In view of the co-integration test end Granger causality test,this paper has respectively conducted the positive analysis of the relationship between the GDP in China and the money supply at all levels. The empirical research has demonstrated that in the long term there is the balanced co-integration relationship and the causal relationship between the GDP and the money supply while in the short term the character of money supply' s influence on the GDP is essentially the same as that of the long term.However,the influence of M2 on the GDP is reversed,namely when M2 rises the GDP will drop instead.As a result,during making the policy of money supply the state should aim st driving the growth of GDP while during making the policy of interest rata the state should consider the balanced interest rate.At the same time,they also should synthetically apply the fiscal policy so as to strengthen the flexibility and sustainability of the monetary policy.
