CAJ | 학술논문

美国拟从2020年开始对中国等国出口产品征收惩罚性的碳关税，广东出口因此面临潜在的负面冲击。基于30／60／85美元／吨C02的碳关税情境，实证评估美国拟征碳关税对广东22种产品出口的可能影响。结果表明，碳关税对广东出口将有较大的负面冲击，但是影响程度因产品类别不同存在很大差异。具体而言，煤、原油等产品受冲击较大，而水泥、纺织材料等产品受冲击相对较小。结果同时表明，并非所有的碳排放密集型产品出口会受到严重冲击，相反，一些非碳排放密集型产品却可能会受到严重影响，揭示出碳关税对出口的冲击并非完全取决于碳排放强度。文章最后从四个方面揭示其中的政策含义。
미국의종2020년개시대중국등국출구산품정수징벌성적탄관세，엄동출구인차면림잠재적부면충격。기우30／60／85미원／둔C02적탄관세정경，실증평고미국의정탄관세대엄동22충산품출구적가능영향。결과표명，탄관세대엄동출구장유교대적부면충격，단시영향정도인산품유별불동존재흔대차이。구체이언，매、원유등산품수충격교대，이수니、방직재료등산품수충격상대교소。결과동시표명，병비소유적탄배방밀집형산품출구회수도엄중충격，상반，일사비탄배방밀집형산품각가능회수도엄중영향，게시출탄관세대출구적충격병비완전취결우탄배방강도。문장최후종사개방면게시기중적정책함의。
Based on three carbon tariff scenarios of USD30/60/85 per ton CO2, this paper makes an empirical assessment of the possible impact of American carbon tariff on Guangdong＇s exports. The results show that carbon tariff will impose a great negative impact on exports, but the degree of influence varies among different products. Coal, crude oil, etc. are affected greatly, while cement, textile materials, etc. less greatly. The results also show that not all carbon-intensive exports are seri- ously influenced; on the contrary, some non-carbon-intensive products are likely to be severely affected, indicating the impact of carbon tariffs on exports is not entirely dependent on intensity of carbon emissions. Finally, it discusses policy implications in four aspects.