环境科学与管理
環境科學與管理
배경과학여관리
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT
2011年
8期
50-54
,共5页
曹娟%袁兴中%祝慧娜%江洪炜%曾光明%黄华军%向求来
曹娟%袁興中%祝慧娜%江洪煒%曾光明%黃華軍%嚮求來
조연%원흥중%축혜나%강홍위%증광명%황화군%향구래
能源结构%IGT模型%C02排放量%马尔可夫模型
能源結構%IGT模型%C02排放量%馬爾可伕模型
능원결구%IGT모형%C02배방량%마이가부모형
energy structure%IGT mode%CO2 emissions%markov model
将能源结构指标Es引入到IGT模型中,并用模糊矩阵对Es进行计算,同时,采用马尔可夫模型对湖南省能源结构进行预测,结果显示:到2020年,湖南省煤、石油、天然气、水电在一次能源消费中的占比为:54.75%:10.75%:2.75%:26.24%;在此能源结构的基础上,用基于能源结构的IGT模型对湖南省CO2排放量进行预测,预测结果显示:2020年湖南省CO2排放量为48787.23万吨,是2010年的1.51倍,但其单位GDP的CO2排放量仅为1.19吨/万元,比2010年下降41.6%;2020年因能源结构优化而减排的CO3量为7049.79万吨,占当年C02排放总量的14.45%。此外,当湖南省单位GDP年均节能率达到7.8%左右时,其CO2排放量将维持2010年的水平不变,从而实现经济增长和CO2排放量的脱钩。
將能源結構指標Es引入到IGT模型中,併用模糊矩陣對Es進行計算,同時,採用馬爾可伕模型對湖南省能源結構進行預測,結果顯示:到2020年,湖南省煤、石油、天然氣、水電在一次能源消費中的佔比為:54.75%:10.75%:2.75%:26.24%;在此能源結構的基礎上,用基于能源結構的IGT模型對湖南省CO2排放量進行預測,預測結果顯示:2020年湖南省CO2排放量為48787.23萬噸,是2010年的1.51倍,但其單位GDP的CO2排放量僅為1.19噸/萬元,比2010年下降41.6%;2020年因能源結構優化而減排的CO3量為7049.79萬噸,佔噹年C02排放總量的14.45%。此外,噹湖南省單位GDP年均節能率達到7.8%左右時,其CO2排放量將維持2010年的水平不變,從而實現經濟增長和CO2排放量的脫鉤。
장능원결구지표Es인입도IGT모형중,병용모호구진대Es진행계산,동시,채용마이가부모형대호남성능원결구진행예측,결과현시:도2020년,호남성매、석유、천연기、수전재일차능원소비중적점비위:54.75%:10.75%:2.75%:26.24%;재차능원결구적기출상,용기우능원결구적IGT모형대호남성CO2배방량진행예측,예측결과현시:2020년호남성CO2배방량위48787.23만둔,시2010년적1.51배,단기단위GDP적CO2배방량부위1.19둔/만원,비2010년하강41.6%;2020년인능원결구우화이감배적CO3량위7049.79만둔,점당년C02배방총량적14.45%。차외,당호남성단위GDP년균절능솔체도7.8%좌우시,기CO2배방량장유지2010년적수평불변,종이실현경제증장화CO2배방량적탈구。
The IGT mode was improved by introducing an indicator E which represents energy structure, and then the value of E~ was calculated by a fuzzy matrix. Meanwhile, the energy structure of Hunan Province was forecasted by Markov model. The results show that coal, oil, natural gas and hydropower accounts for 54. 75% , 10.75% , 2.75% and 26. 24% respectively in primary energy consumption of Hunan. On the basis of this energy structure, the IGT mode based on energy structure was applied to forecast CO2 emissions of Hunan Province. The results show that CO2 emissions of Hunan Province in 2020 were forecasted to be 48 787.23, 1.51 times as much as that in 2010, however, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP were 1.19 tons/million, 41. 6% lower when compared with that in 2010. Carbon dioxide emissions produced in 2020 reduced 7 049.79 million tons due to optimization of energy structure, accounting for 14. 45% of total CO2 emissions. If the Hunan's energy saving rate reaches 7.8% per unit GDP; CO2 emissions will remain the same level, as that of 2010 so as to achieve the targets economic growth cut its ties with CO2 emissions.