CAJ | 학술논문

如何准确快速地预报TBM的落点是反TBM部署以及提高拦截概率的关键步骤.首先介绍了反导作战中的常用坐标系;在适当假设的前提下,建立了基于关机点状态的弹道导弹落点估计数学模型,模型简单、精确,克服了现有估计方法的弊端;并对落点估计误差用概率圆的方法进行了分析.利用所构建的模型进行了Monte Carlo仿真,从仿真结果看出:仿真所得出的TBM落点估计值与真实值之间存在偏差,这主要是由于模型误差以及再入段没有考虑大气阻力影响等原因造成的,但偏差量较小,说明了该模型具有很好的可靠性及实用性,对TBM落点估计具有一定的实际意义.
여하준학쾌속지예보TBM적낙점시반TBM부서이급제고란절개솔적관건보취.수선개소료반도작전중적상용좌표계;재괄당가설적전제하,건립료기우관궤점상태적탄도도탄낙점고계수학모형,모형간단、정학,극복료현유고계방법적폐단;병대낙점고계오차용개솔원적방법진행료분석.이용소구건적모형진행료Monte Carlo방진,종방진결과간출:방진소득출적TBM낙점고계치여진실치지간존재편차,저주요시유우모형오차이급재입단몰유고필대기조력영향등원인조성적,단편차량교소,설명료해모형구유흔호적가고성급실용성,대TBM낙점고계구유일정적실제의의.
How to truly and quickly forecast the TBM impact point is a critical and decisive step in ATBM deployment and in raising the intercept probability. This paper introduces the reference frame in the process of anti-Tactical Ballistic Missile, builds up a mathematic model of impact point estimation based on the state of burnout point under proper assumption. The model is simple and precise, and the application of it can get over the shortage and abuse of the existing method. And simultaneously the error of impact point is analyzed by using the method of CEP, and then Monte Carlo simulation is done by using the model. The simulating results show that there is a small windage between the estimating value and the true value in the impact point estimation, which is actually caused by the model error and air resistance, etc., the model mentioned in this paper has a less error in impact point estimation. This just shows that the model is bettering reliability and practicality, and is of some practical meaning in TBM impact point estimation.