CAJ | 학술논문

耕地保有量预测是土地利用总体规划的重要内容.以甘肃天水市为例,根据1996-2005年土地利用变更数据及人口、粮食统计数据,综合利用基于粮食安全出发的粮食需求法和GM(1,1)模型的数学方法两种方法来确定耕地保有量,并将所得结果相互验证、对比分析,以提高预测可信度.结果表明:天水市2010年和2020年的耕地保有量为50 8781 hm~2和463 588 hm~2.图2.表4,参11.
경지보유량예측시토지이용총체규화적중요내용.이감숙천수시위례,근거1996-2005년토지이용변경수거급인구、양식통계수거,종합이용기우양식안전출발적양식수구법화GM(1,1)모형적수학방법량충방법래학정경지보유량,병장소득결과상호험증、대비분석,이제고예측가신도.결과표명:천수시2010년화2020년적경지보유량위50 8781 hm~2화463 588 hm~2.도2.표4,삼11.
Prediction of plantation preservation quantity is the most important content of the Overal Planning of Land-Use.We take Tianshui city in Gansu province as an example,basing on Land-age changing data,population and food statistics between 1996 and 2005,using mathematical methods of food demand and GM(1,1)model to determine the plantation preservation quantity.At the Same time,the results ale verified and comparatively analysed to improve the credibility of the prediction.The results show that the plantation preservation quantities of Tianshui city in 2010 and 2020 are 508 781 hm~2 and 463 588 hm~2,respectively.