CAJ | 학술논문

番荔枝实蝇Ceratitis artortoe(Graham)是一种重要的外来人侵性检疫害虫.在广东口岸,其幼虫连续从入境旅客所携带的水果中被榆出.目前关于番荔枝实蝇潜在适生性分布的研究进行得很少,但对于我国的生物生态安全却有重要意义.本研究中,我们使用3种牛态位模型(ENFA模型,马氏典型性模型和Maxent模型)对番荔枝实蝇在中斟以及全球范尉内的潜在适生性分布区域进行了预测分析.结果显示:Maxent模型拥有最好的预测精确度,马氏典型件模型次之,而ENFA模型的预测精确度最差;Maxent模型和马氏典型性模型的预测精确度无显著性差异;根据Maxent模型的预测结果,番荔枝实蝇在中国的潜在适生区主要是广西、广东、海南以及云南的少部分地区.分析结果显示,番荔枝实蝇从境外传人中国南部地区并最终在上述地区定殖的风险可能性存在,但风险较小.另外,折刀法(Jackknife)分析显示,6种环境因子,例如地面霜冻频率、年平均降雨量、十月降雨量、四月降雨量、年最低温度以及蒸气压,对于番荔枝实蝇在全球和局部地区的分布模式有显著的影响.
번려지실승Ceratitis artortoe(Graham)시일충중요적외래인침성검역해충.재엄동구안,기유충련속종입경여객소휴대적수과중피유출.목전관우번려지실승잠재괄생성분포적연구진행득흔소,단대우아국적생물생태안전각유중요의의.본연구중,아문사용3충우태위모형(ENFA모형,마씨전형성모형화Maxent모형)대번려지실승재중짐이급전구범위내적잠재괄생성분포구역진행료예측분석.결과현시:Maxent모형옹유최호적예측정학도,마씨전형건모형차지,이ENFA모형적예측정학도최차;Maxent모형화마씨전형성모형적예측정학도무현저성차이;근거Maxent모형적예측결과,번려지실승재중국적잠재괄생구주요시엄서、엄동、해남이급운남적소부분지구.분석결과현시,번려지실승종경외전인중국남부지구병최종재상술지구정식적풍험가능성존재,단풍험교소.령외,절도법(Jackknife)분석현시,6충배경인자,례여지면상동빈솔、년평균강우량、십월강우량、사월강우량、년최저온도이급증기압,대우번려지실승재전구화국부지구적분포모식유현저적영향.
Ceratitis anonae ( Graham) is an important quarantine invasive pest in China and its larvae are continually intercepted from fruits carried by incoming passengers at Guangdong ports. There are rare research reports about its potential distribution in China, but the geographic distribution of this species is of considerable concern in terms of biosecurity. In this study, three different ecological modeling methods (ENFA, Mahalanobis typicality and Maxent) were used to predict its potential distribution. The results show that Maxent has the best prediction performance, followed by Mahalanobis typicality, and ENFA has the poorest performance; and besides, the difference of prediction capabilities between Maxent and Mahalanobis typicality is not significant. Based on prediction outcome of Maxent, suitable areas of C. anonae in China are limited in Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and a few areas of Yunnan; and hence the probability of C. anonae permanently establishing in southern China exists but low. Jackknife analysis indicates that six variables have notable influence on the distribution pattern of C. anonae, i. e. ground frost frequency, annual mean precipitation, precipitation of October, precipitation of April, annual minimum temperature, and vapor pressure.