CAJ | 학술논문

针对整机贮存期内的区间型定检数据以及维修方案,提出了可修系统贮存可用度近似置信下限的Bootstrap评估方法.使用基于定时截尾数据的极大似然估计(MLE)方法计算参数的伪MLE值,并利用修正的似然函数法对贮存阶段的无失效数据进行了统计处理.结合Bootstrap方法,引入修如旧和修如新模型计算系统贮存可用度.计算结果表明:该方法得到的置信下限真值覆盖率接近置信水平,其评估精度满足工程的应用需求.
침대정궤저존기내적구간형정검수거이급유수방안,제출료가수계통저존가용도근사치신하한적Bootstrap평고방법.사용기우정시절미수거적겁대사연고계(MLE)방법계산삼수적위MLE치,병이용수정적사연함수법대저존계단적무실효수거진행료통계처리.결합Bootstrap방법,인입수여구화수여신모형계산계통저존가용도.계산결과표명:해방법득도적치신하한진치복개솔접근치신수평,기평고정도만족공정적응용수구.
Taking aim at the grouped data and maintenance program of the equipments in the storage period, the Bootstrap estimating method of approximate confidence lower limits of repairable system storage availability was proposed. The pseudo maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) value was calculated by MLE method based on type Ⅰ censored data, and the zero-failure data was solved by MMLE method. Storage availability of the system was calculated by the Bootstrap method and the introduced models in which the repaired systems seem as the old one or the new one. The result of the illustration computation shows that the truth coverage ratio of confidence lower limits obtained by the method approaches to the confidence level, and the estimate precision is satisfied with the demand of engineering application.