CAJ | 학술논문

采用新疆地区最完善的94个气象站的观测资料,系统地分析了新疆地区1960～2005年近地表主要气候要素(包括降水、气温、风速、日照时数、总云量、低云量、蒸发皿蒸发、气温日较差等)演变的时间和空间特征,并结合几个站点的太阳总辐射资料分析了日照、总云量、低云量、蒸发皿蒸发和太阳总辐射之间的关系,揭示了近50年来新疆气候变化的一些新特点.对导致这些变化的原因进行了初步分析,得到的结果包括:1)新疆区域年降水在1987年发生转折性变化,而冬季降水在1986年就开始发生转折性变化,是4个季节中最早的.新疆区域降水与比湿和低云量之间具有极高的相关性,尤其是低云量的增加可能是导致降水增加的主要原因.2)气温显著升高的同时,气温日较差是明显下降的.气温的升高可能是空气中水汽增多的结果,但也可能是气温长期自然振荡过程中的一个上升阶段.3)日照时数在总云量减小的前提下减少,这可能是降水和低云量增多导致的结果.4)蒸发皿蒸发的减小可能是风速、气温日较差、降水以及云量共同作用的结果,单站分析表明太阳辐射的下降也可能是导致蒸发皿蒸发下降的一个重要原因.
채용신강지구최완선적94개기상참적관측자료,계통지분석료신강지구1960～2005년근지표주요기후요소(포괄강수、기온、풍속、일조시수、총운량、저운량、증발명증발、기온일교차등)연변적시간화공간특정,병결합궤개참점적태양총복사자료분석료일조、총운량、저운량、증발명증발화태양총복사지간적관계,게시료근50년래신강기후변화적일사신특점.대도치저사변화적원인진행료초보분석,득도적결과포괄:1)신강구역년강수재1987년발생전절성변화,이동계강수재1986년취개시발생전절성변화,시4개계절중최조적.신강구역강수여비습화저운량지간구유겁고적상관성,우기시저운량적증가가능시도치강수증가적주요원인.2)기온현저승고적동시,기온일교차시명현하강적.기온적승고가능시공기중수기증다적결과,단야가능시기온장기자연진탕과정중적일개상승계단.3)일조시수재총운량감소적전제하감소,저가능시강수화저운량증다도치적결과.4)증발명증발적감소가능시풍속、기온일교차、강수이급운량공동작용적결과,단참분석표명태양복사적하강야가능시도치증발명증발하강적일개중요원인.
A data set of precipitation, mean temperature and other climate variables at 94 stations of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is firstly used to analyze climate changes in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The widely accepted procedures for creating regional averaged climatic time series and calculating linear trend and cumulative anomaly have been used. Analyses and discussion have been made for annual precipitation, mean temperature,wind speed, low cloud cover, total cloud cover, specific humidity, pan evaporation, and diurnal temperature range, and the seasonal analysis only includes precipitation and mean temperature. Solar radiation from a limited number of stations was available to evaluate the relationship between solar radiation and sunshine duration, total cloud cover, low cloud cover, and pan evaporation. The analyses show that the increasing rate of annual precipitation in Xinjiang as a whole was about 8. 5 mm·(10 a)~(-1), and time series of annual precipitation turned from dry to wet in 1987. It is consistent with some earlier studies. Furthermore, the seasonal analyses demonstrate that precipitation began to transfer in the winter of 1986 actually. Except the Turpan basin, precipitation is increasing all over Xinjiang. Mean temperature is warming throughout Xinjiang. The regional mean temperature has a significant increasing trend, and the rate of warming in winter is larger than that in the other seasons. The authors also find that pan evaporation decreased in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2005, and the decrease is statistically significant. The changing rate is -26.5 mm·(10 a)~(-1) , which is smaller than the average values in the whole China. There were not significant long-term changes of annual sunshine duration, total cloud cover. Long-term changes in regional averaged specific humidity and low cloud cover have a significant increasing trend, and they also have the similar pattern to decadal or annual change of precipitation. The increasing changes of them perhaps lead to the increasing of precipitation. It is worth to study further. The authors also tentatively analyzed the possible causes for the observed change. However, it may be premature to give a definite conclusion at this moment.