CAJ | 학술논문

发展煤化工对保障我国能源安全,充分利用煤炭资源有重大的意义.但我国煤化工行业发展存在较大的不确定性.这种不确定性不仅体现在原料,市场的迅速变化和工程技术的发展趋势,也体现在环境政策和应对气候变化的约束性要求.本文介绍了不确定条件下的投资决策理论(real options analysis,简称为ROA)的基本原理,不确定因素分析方法、建模和求解及其应用于能源利用技术投资领域的研究进展.在此基础上,结合我国煤化工产业发展背景,分析了该理论方法应用于我国煤化工领域相关投资决策和行业发展政策研究的必要性、可行性和应用前景.
발전매화공대보장아국능원안전,충분이용매탄자원유중대적의의.단아국매화공행업발전존재교대적불학정성.저충불학정성불부체현재원료,시장적신속변화화공정기술적발전추세,야체현재배경정책화응대기후변화적약속성요구.본문개소료불학정조건하적투자결책이론(real options analysis,간칭위ROA)적기본원리,불학정인소분석방법、건모화구해급기응용우능원이용기술투자영역적연구진전.재차기출상,결합아국매화공산업발전배경,분석료해이론방법응용우아국매화공영역상관투자결책화행업발전정책연구적필요성、가행성화응용전경.
To develop coal chemical industry would enable taking full advantage of China's coal resource,and has great significance for national energy security.Howeve,huge uncertainty is faced by coal chemical industry,which is not only reflected by deepening market-oriented reform but also by constraint from policies regarding environmental and climate issues.This paper introduces the application of real options analysis(ROA) into techno-economic appraisal of energy utilization technologies,involving analysis of uncertain factors,modeling and solving techniques.Based on review of current research status,in combination with development background for China's coal chemical industry,the necessity and feasibility of application of the ROA theory is analyzed,indicating that the ROA theory has much potential for application.