CAJ | 학술논문

为了细致考察成本变量的动态变动性与层次关联,提出一种基于"产品特征一过程消耗一成本"分层动态映射的精细化产品成本预测方法.面向产品族和产品系列,对设计层、过程实现层、资源支持层各层变量间的关联关系进行逐层分析,建立产品特征到材料消耗量、作业量的定量映射,采用时间序列分析方法对成本变量的时变规律进行分析和预测,构造产品特征与材料成本、生产作业成本的动态定量关系,实现基于特征的产品成本动态预测.以某企业设计、生产的翅片式换热器系列产品为例进行了研究,对预测模型的建立过程和应用效果进行了详细说明,并验证了预测方法的有效性.
위료세치고찰성본변량적동태변동성여층차관련,제출일충기우"산품특정일과정소모일성본"분층동태영사적정세화산품성본예측방법.면향산품족화산품계렬,대설계층、과정실현층、자원지지층각층변량간적관련관계진행축층분석,건립산품특정도재료소모량、작업량적정량영사,채용시간서렬분석방법대성본변량적시변규률진행분석화예측,구조산품특정여재료성본、생산작업성본적동태정량관계,실현기우특정적산품성본동태예측.이모기업설계、생산적시편식환열기계렬산품위례진행료연구,대예측모형적건립과정화응용효과진행료상세설명,병험증료예측방법적유효성.
To study dynamic characteristics and hierarchical relevances of cost impact on variables,a product cost prediction method based on hierarchical and dynamic mapping with a framework of "product feature-process consumption-cost" was presented.Oriented to product family and product series,the associations among variables from different layers (design layer,process implementation layer and resource support layer) were firstly analyzed.And then,the mapping from product feature to the material comsumption and operation consumption was established,and the changes of cost variables were analyzed and predicted with time series analysis method.The dynamic and quantitative relationships among product feature,material cost and product operation cost were established,and the dynamic product cost prediction based on product feature was then realized.Finally,a case study was given on cost prediction of heat exchanger production in a mechanical enterprise to demonstrate the construction process of the prediction model and its application results.Effectiveness of the method was verified.