CAJ | 학술논문

本文对海河流域水平衡和水资源短缺风险进行评价.文章采用研究时段为1994-2007年,作者首先研究了海河流域的水量平衡问题,并提出了流域非用水消耗量的概念和计算方法,经过分析,计算得出海河流域多年平均非用水消耗量为5.91×109m3.通过建立水资源短缺风险的评价方法,得出海河流域1994-2007年处于缺水量较多、缺水风险较高的时期,计算出缺水风险率、恢复性指标、稳定性指标和脆弱性指标分别为0.786、0、0.154和0.173.在考虑社会系统应对措施的条件下,水资源短缺风险将会显著下降.考虑南水北调工程对于该地区的影响,分别考虑在50％和75％两种来水水平年下,如果南水北调工程一期(2014年)的来水量为5×109m3,未来该地区的水资源短缺风险会从0.229-0.297下降到0.152-0.234.
본문대해하류역수평형화수자원단결풍험진행평개.문장채용연구시단위1994-2007년,작자수선연구료해하류역적수량평형문제,병제출료류역비용수소모량적개념화계산방법,경과분석,계산득출해하류역다년평균비용수소모량위5.91×109m3.통과건립수자원단결풍험적평개방법,득출해하류역1994-2007년처우결수량교다、결수풍험교고적시기,계산출결수풍험솔、회복성지표、은정성지표화취약성지표분별위0.786、0、0.154화0.173.재고필사회계통응대조시적조건하,수자원단결풍험장회현저하강.고필남수북조공정대우해지구적영향,분별고필재50％화75％량충래수수평년하,여과남수북조공정일기(2014년)적래수량위5×109m3,미래해지구적수자원단결풍험회종0.229-0.297하강도0.152-0.234.
This paper studies water balance in the Haihe River Basin,China and assesses water shortage risk for the period 1994-2007.The authors identify that there is a water shortage problem in this area and propose that the non-intake water consumption(NIWC)is a very important water balance element.The NIWC in the Haihe River Basin flow is 5.91×109m3 in normal years.It was concluded from our evaluation that the water shortage risk during 1994-2007 was very high.Using international water risk assessment theory,multiyear risk indicators in Haihe River Basin can be calculated.Water risk rate,resiliency,stability,and vulnerability for the Haihe River Basin for the period 1994-2007 were 0.786,0.000,0.154 and 0.173 respectively.With the use of counter-force factors and adoption of different priorities to different water consumers,the water shortage risk can be decreased.The integrated water shortage risk indicators of the Haihe River Basin are 0.095-0.328.In this study,water availability from the South-North Water Diversion Project is also considered.By the year 2014,about 5×109m3 of water will be diverted from the Yangtse River,and the water shortage risk in the Haihe River Basin will drop from 0.229-0.297 to 0.152-0.234 under an inflow water frequency of 50％-75％.However,a risk of water shortage in this area will persist.