CAJ | 학술논문

综合考虑水文气象、南水北调工程、地下水超采控制、入海水量控制目标等因素,以及现状(2005年)、 2010年和2020年3个水平年, 设置了9个情景方案, 应用海河流域二元水循环模型(简称"二元模型")进行了水资源管理战略情景模拟分析.采用GDP、粮食产量、 ET(蒸散发量)、入海水量、总用水量、减少地下水超采量等评价指标对9个情景方案的模拟结果进行了评价,给出了各规划水平年的推荐方案.在此基础上,对今后海河流域水资源管理战略问题如ET控制、地下水超采量控制和入渤海水量控制等进行了讨论.研究表明,未来虽然有南水北调工程对本流域的补水,但需要严格控制流域用水量和耗水量,才能做到逐步减少地下水超采量、增加入渤海水量,实现国民经济与生态环境的和谐发展.
종합고필수문기상、남수북조공정、지하수초채공제、입해수량공제목표등인소,이급현상(2005년)、 2010년화2020년3개수평년, 설치료9개정경방안, 응용해하류역이원수순배모형(간칭"이원모형")진행료수자원관리전략정경모의분석.채용GDP、양식산량、 ET(증산발량)、입해수량、총용수량、감소지하수초채량등평개지표대9개정경방안적모의결과진행료평개,급출료각규화수평년적추천방안.재차기출상,대금후해하류역수자원관리전략문제여ET공제、지하수초채량공제화입발해수량공제등진행료토론.연구표명,미래수연유남수북조공정대본류역적보수,단수요엄격공제류역용수량화모수량,재능주도축보감소지하수초채량、증가입발해수량,실현국민경제여생태배경적화해발전.
The nine integrated water resources management scenarios in the Haihe River Basin (HRB), comprehensively considering factors of the hydro-meteorology, the South to North Water Transfer Projects (SNWTP), the groundwater overexploitation and the control target of river flow into the Bohai Sea, and the current situation of 2005, as well as two future scenarios of 2010 and 2020 planning year level are constructed using the dualistic hydrological cycle model (abbreviated as Dualistic Model). The results are evaluated through the evaluation indices, including GDP, grain output, evapotranspiration (ET), river flow into the sea, total water use and reduced groundwater overexploitation. The optimized scenario is obtained and proposed. Building upon the result of scenario simulations, the future water resources management in the HRB is discussed in the context of controlling of ET, groundwater overexploitation, and flow discharge into the sea. The result shows that in spite of having future water supply from the SNWTP, the measures of strict control of water usages and the consumptions are still essential and necessary in order to gradually reduce the groundwater overexploitation and increase the flow discharge into the Bohai Sea, which will ensure the harmonious development of economy and eco-environment in the HRB.