CAJ | 학술논문

为比较不同整群抽样设计方法的抽样误差及设计效应,评价不等概率抽样在死因监测中的应用效果.以陕西省107个县(市、区)作为抽样框架,采用等概率整群抽样和不等概率整群抽样等设计方案抽取样本,用复杂抽样方法计算不同方案样本的抽样误差和设计效应.不同的抽样方案得到不同的抽样误差估计,分层整群抽样的标准误小于完全随机整群抽样;不等概率抽样(πPS抽样)的设计效率虽略逊于等概率的完全随机整群抽样,但扩大了监测范围.结论 :对于抽样框架明确的整群抽样调查数据,在统计分析时不应脱离预先设定的抽样设计方案和设计参数.死因监测采用不等概率抽样设计,能增加样本的权重,提高死亡率的地区代表性.
위비교불동정군추양설계방법 적추양오차급설계효응,평개불등개솔추양재사인감측중적응용효과.이합서성107개현(시、구)작위추양광가,채용등개솔정군추양화불등개솔정군추양등설계방안추취양본,용복잡추양방법 계산불동방안양본적추양오차화설계효응.불동적추양방안득도불동적추양오차고계,분층정군추양적표준오소우완전수궤정군추양;불등개솔추양(πPS추양)적설계효솔수략손우등개솔적완전수궤정군추양,단확대료감측범위.결론 :대우추양광가명학적정군추양조사수거,재통계분석시불응탈리예선설정적추양설계방안화설계삼수.사인감측채용불등개솔추양설계,능증가양본적권중,제고사망솔적지구대표성.
To compare the sampling errors from cluster or unequal probability sampling designs and to adopt the unequal probability sampling method to be used for death surveillance.Taking 107 areas from the county level in Shaanxi province as the sampling frame,a set of samples are drawn by equal probability cluster sampling and unequal probability designs methodologies.Sampling error and effect of each design are estimated according to their complex sample plans.Both the sampling errors depend on the sampling plan and the errors of equal probability in stratified cluster sampling appeares to be less than simple cluster sampling.The design effects of unequal probability stratified cluster sampling,such as πPS design,are slightly lower than those of equal probability stratified cluster sampling,but the unequal probability stratified cluster sampling can cover a wider scope of monitoring population.Conclusions:Results from the analysis of sampling data can not be conducted without consideration of the sampling plan when the sampling frame is finite and a given sampling plan and parameters,such as sampling proportion and population weights,are assigned in advance.Unequal probability cluster sampling designs seems to be more appropriate in selecting the national death surveillance sites since more available monitoring data can be obtained and having more weight in estimating the mortality for the whole province or the municipality to be selected.